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Difficult Offseason Ahead for the Brooklyn Nets

Rafael Uehara — Wed, 08 May 2013 12:35:37 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

After the embarrassment that the first round elimination to the Bulls was, as Chicago dealt with multiple injuries to the team’s best players and could barely patch together a rotation that went eight deep, the Nets must now look ahead and figure out what to do moving forward. General-manager Billy King, who just signed an extension, will face a very difficult challenge this upcoming offseason. Brooklyn is going to have very little flexibility adding to this roster because the team already has $85 million in salaries committed for next season. They are way into luxury tax territory and sign-and-trades (usually how teams over the cap managed to sign free agents in the past) are no longer allowable for tax payers starting this summer. Guys like Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala and Andrei Kirilenko are immediately out of the picture then.

It will also be hard to navigate the trade market, unless King suddenly finds himself willing to involve Brook Lopez into talks. Lopez has three years and a little over $46 million left on his deal. Based on his noticeable improvement on defense and terrific production on offense, Lopez looks about properly paid. It was hard to engage the Magic into taking Lopez in exchange for Dwight Howard last summer, but after his very good season, more teams should be willing to see Lopez as a linchpin of a high profile trade. Despite his disappointing fourth quarter on game seven (in the eyes of some), it would be hard to see Brooklyn being open minded about parting ways with Lopez, though. He made the All Star team, averaged 23 points per 36 minutes and was the single constant on the team’s tumultuous first season in their new home. That should be an option worth taking a look at, though, considering what the other alternatives are.

Deron Williams had a very tough first half to the season due to an ankle injury but looked like a star-caliber player again after the All Star break. It is just so hard to get a player of that level in this league and the Nets gave up so much for him that it makes no sense to even consider moving away from him now, not after a season where he was seriously hurt half the time, regardless of how it ended.

It should be extremely hard to find a market for Joe Johnson. Not because of game seven, though. The guy was clearly hurt and couldn’t move out there, and people who are ignoring that are just annoying. It’s because Johnson didn’t have a very good year before that and has three years and roughly $70 million left in his contract. Under Avery Johnson, Johnson was mostly a very expensive spot-up shooter, then under PJ Carlesimo, he got some of those isolation possessions he was known for with the Hawks, but didn’t do as well as in his prime in Atlanta. Johnson shot just 42.3% from the field this season, averaged just 3.4 assists per 36 minutes and got to the rim just 85 times all season, according to basketball-reference.com. You can never state a guy is untradable in the NBA but this was Johnson’s age 31 season and considering how severe are the signs of decline and how much money he is owed, it is borderline impossible to see Brooklyn getting rid of him.

The challenges will be just as tough finding a market for Gerald Wallace too. King acquired Wallace for a draft pick that turned out to be the sixth overall, which the Blazers used on rookie of the year Damian Lillard. Then they signed Wallace to a four-year, $40 million extension. Many argue getting Wallace was key to reestablish Williams’ faith on the front-office and eventually getting him to re-sign. That’s speculation. What is fact is Wallace had a very below average season for a player earning as much money as he does. Wallace posted a .490 true-shooting percentage and the Bulls constantly ignored him on offense in the playoff series. He is an energy guy who couldn’t transform his energy into production in his age 30 season. It doesn’t project to get much better from now on. He was misused some. Carlesimo’s unwillingness to play him at stretch-four was almost beyond belief. I think he could still be productive as a small-ball power forward in a team with better shooting around him. But in this team, with this personnel, Wallace projects to continue being a weak link on offense. The league is going away from wingmen who can’t shoot. Tony Allen will have a tougher time this summer than many anticipate. It will likely be hard to generate interest for a 31-year old who is essentially a specialist and is owed $31 million over the next three years.

Mirza Teletovic was the Euroleague’s top scorer a couple of seasons ago but struggled with defensive principles in the NBA. He is on a friendly contract and big men who can shoot are a commodity in the league right now but I can’t imagine what meaningful return Brooklyn could get for him after he logged just 499 minutes this season. Just like the Nets traded for Reggie Evans last summer, I could see some other contender looking to add him as break-the-glass emergency back-up big, especially as he is earning just $1.6 million next season. But as they are over the cap, the Nets can’t take more salary than send on a trade, so it will be hard for Brooklyn to find someone who is earning as little money as Evans and is likely to make a bigger contribution than he just did this season.

Then, we get to Kris Humphries. Humphries was a very productive player in the lockout-shortened season for the Nets and the team needed to re-sign him to secure a volume rebounder around Lopez. But they did not re-sign him for $24 million because they thought he was worth that much. Humphries was signed for $12 million a year, so the Nets could offer to take almost all of the Magic’s bad salary in a possible Dwight Howard trade. Humphries got the second year because of his willingness to go along with the team’s clear plan of re-signing him with the well known intent of trading him. But it backfired on the Nets. The Lakers swooped in to steal Howard and Humphries had a terrible season. He remains the team’s best trading chip going into the offseason (outside of Lopez and Williams, of course) because the way Brooklyn might be able to add is targeting a player whose very large salary some other contender would like to shed off the books (Carlos Boozer, Amar’e Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, maybe Zach Randolph) and Humphries’ high cap number would help making those possible trades work. But life would still be much easier for the Nets without his $12 million on the books, as they would be just around $70 million and could work on getting below the tax.

With the 22nd pick in the draft, Brooklyn has intriguing possibilities but none that could really significantly impact their bottom line right now. Dario Saric, Giannis Adetokunbo, Lucas Nogueira or Mouhammadou Jaiteh could be terrific future investments but none of them are likely to play in the league next year, and even if they did, none would project to contribute right away. Sergey Karasev and Dennis Schroeder probably won’t be on the board by the time the Nets pick. I think they could do well choosing between Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Allen Crabbe and Reggie Bullock, who would strengthen the team’s main weakness at the wing, but they are late first-round prospects for a reason.

So, where the Nets actually have the best chance of improving significantly is at head coach. Brooklyn announced Carlesimo would not return about five minutes after the team was eliminated and already did the mandatory inquire on Phil Jackson. It was just reported Jackson declined whichever offer was made to him but the top ranked free agent coach, in my opinion, is Stan Van Gundy and he is still out there. If there is someone who is a sure thing to do more with what is already in place is Stan Van. He certainly could get them to play harder. Williams is known to be a difficult guy but Stan Van had Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis balling hard. He coached a team featuring Turkoglu, Lewis, Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick into elite status on defense. Obviously Lopez isn’t Howard but the improvements he made as a defender indicate he continues willing on working on his game, despite having already gotten his extension. We always hear good things about Brian Shaw, Mike Malone and some of these other top assistants and the next Tom Thibodeau is out there right now just waiting for his chance, but all things considered, Stan Van is the guy Brooklyn should be going after hard.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

2013 Euroleague Final Four Preview

Rafael Uehara — Mon, 06 May 2013 16:30:05 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

We are officially within a week of the Euroleague Final Four, with this year’s edition taking place in London. The 2013 Final Four will feature three of the four teams that made it to Istanbul in 2012, including a rematch of the epic championship game between CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos Piraeus as one of the semifinals. The other will be a renew of Spain’s biggest rivalry as Real Madrid and Regal FC Barcelona go at it for the fourth time this season, none more important than this one.

Barcelona has won 25 of their 29 games in the Euroleague, but does not get to London as the heavy favorites to win their second title in the last five seasons. Barça has once more played the most dominant defense in European basketball, holding opponents to 94.3 points per 100 possessions, which was quite surprising considering linchpins to the team’s elite stand in prevention in years past such as Boniface N’Dong, Kosta Perovic and Fran Vázquez were let go last summer so more offensive talent in the form of Ante Tomic and Nathan Jawai could be added.

Last year, Barcelona was too codependent of Juan Carlos Navarro and Erazem Lorbek to score and when the former started dealing with plantar fasciitis late in the season and the latter chose a bad day to have a bad day, Barça just didn’t have enough against an Olympiacos’ defense that had emerged as one of the best in the continent on their run to the championship. Aside from adding more scoring pedigree with Tomic and Jawai and shot creation with God Jasikevicius, head-coach Xavi Pascual modernized the attack from a post-up heavy scheme with pick-and-rolls featuring mostly only Navarro and Lorbek to a more democratic perimeter oriented offense that makes better usage of Marcelinho Huertas’s presence and eased the dependence of Navarro and Lorbek. Barcelona arrives at the Final Four leading the league in scoring at the rim and ranking fifth in scoring per possession.

At this point, one might wonder that if Barça has played dominant ball on both sides of the court, why aren’t they the top favorites. The reasons are threefold; Pete Mickeal’s absence, some of the problems Panathinaikos exposed in the recent quarterfinal series and the fact that Real Madrid is a team built to beat Barcelona.

Mickeal was having one of the best seasons of his career at age 35. He was the team’s most impactful defender (Barça allowed just 92.3 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup) and efficient perimeter scorer (ranking third in the team in scoring in the lane, only behind the centers). His absence has exposed the team’s lack of a true backup at his position. Joe Ingles acted as Navarro’s backup early in the season and was mostly out of favor before the series against Panathinaikos, in which he lost key playing time to Alex Abrines during games three and four before getting 31 minutes on the decisive game five. Abrines really played well just two or three times this year and is only an option at forward when the team goes zone. Xabi Rabaseda was hurt during the quarterfinals, just after he had finally put a string of some consistent performances together. Pascual has at times opted for three-guard sets featuring either of Huertas or Victor Sada at the point alongside God and Navarro, but Pascual has avoided going to those sets much (just 16 minutes in Euroleague play) due to the defensive deficiencies of all those guys but Sada.

Panathinaikos exposed that without Mickeal Barça is pretty much unathletic and suffers with speed and physicality. Jonas Maciulus posted Joe Ingles with ease, and so did Roko Ukic any of the guards. When healthy for the first portion of that series, James Gist had a big impact drawing Lorbek and CJ Wallace into the perimeter and then attacking closeouts. Despite having more talent, Barça only got away from PAO in the last two games when Pascual inserted a zone defense for extended periods of time. Over the last two years, since Pablo Laso has taken over, Real Madrid has focused on adding more athletic types, exactly because of Barcelona.

Under Ettore Messina and Emanuel Molin, Barça dominated Real Madrid but under Laso, things started to change some. Last season, Madrid ran over Barça in the King’s Cup and split the Spanish ACB regular-season meetings. They were the favorites over their arch-rivals in the ACB Finals, but the implosion in the Euroleague top 16 carried over to the domestic side and Madrid lost the championship to Barcelona on gave five. This season, Madrid won the preseason Superleague, lost in the King’s Cup (in a two-overtime thriller) and the teams once more split the Spanish ACB regular-season meetings, each winning at home, with Madrid’s victory happening eight days ago.

Real Madrid has played arguably the most crowd pleasing basketball in Europe, alongside CSKA Moscow. Madrid has won 20 of 27 games in the Euroleague and 28 of 32 games in the Spanish ACB. It just ran over a very solid Maccabi Tel Aviv squad to earn a ticket to London. Just like last season, this year’s squad is a scoring machine, finishing third in scoring per possession, averaging 111.2 points per 100 possessions in continental play. What makes this team a legit championship contender, while the previous one failed to make it out of the top 16, is the significant improvement on defense. Last year’s team allowed 103.1 points per 100 possessions, while this year’s finished second in scoring allowed per possession, holding opponents to 100.2.

You can simply point to the switch of Tomic for Marcus Slaughter at center as the turning point for the emergence of Madrid as a legit prevention force. Tomic’s breakout season at Barcelona has prompted many to make fun of Laso. And it’s easy to understand why. Tomic was one of the most underwhelming, disappointing players in all of Europe under his tutelage and now he is a legit top flight big man under Pascual’s. However, it is mighty unfair not to remember that the commitment to defense Tomic is showing in Barcelona was never ever there in Madrid. Meanwhile, Laso now has in Slaughter a self-motivated hustle guy whose motor is always on. Forget about how Slaughter’s athleticism – his ability to sprint down the court on breaks and to play above the rim – fits the offense better. It’s his reliability to impact their defense that has made much more of a difference.

Slaughter is one outstanding pick-and-roll defender. He has mastered the concept of defending with his feet, containing dribble penetration off a high screen by flashing but without overplaying and leaving himself exposed to getting beaten off the dribble, stepping back to prioritize paint protection but without backpedaling and providing a path to the rim by the driver. Slaughter is just terrific. His prolificacy not only defending that set but also in general help-defense permits aggressive on-ball defenders like Sergio Llull and Don Draper to make a bigger impact. Real Madrid has allowed only 95.4 points per 100 possessions in the Euroleague in the 518 minutes Slaughter has been on the court. Without him, they defend 9.2 points per 100 possessions worst. Madrid has allowed the fewest shots and scores at the rim among all Final Four participants.

Real Madrid has in Carlos Suárez a player capable of exploring Barcelona’s deficiency defending the post with perimeter players. In fact, when Messina was still the head coach, the game plan was to go at Barça through the post, with Suárez as one of the go-to guys. Laso does not emphasize post play as much but calling a couple of touches for Suárez in the block early when Ingles is matched up on him should be discussed. With Martynas Pocius playing very little this year, either because he is hurt or because Laso has simply fell out of love with him, Rudy Fernandez has doubled as Suárez’s backup at small forward, playing 362 Euroleague minutes at the position. It has been a great way to have Fernandez out there more, as his high profile backup at two-guard, Jaycee Carroll, demands big minutes as well. Most of the year, Laso has gone to three-guard sets in Suárez’s absence. Early, he worked Don Draper into the rotation (shifting Sergio Llull to shooting guard) but lately (including in the game of eight days ago), Laso has extended the minutes of lineups that feature both Carroll and Fernandez on the wings. Those project to be killers for Barça.

Victor Sada was essentially dropped out of the rotation in the last three games of the series against Panathinaikos but his defensive pedigree might be needed here. Ingles is a good isolation defender and should guard Fernandez, besides the fact he doesn’t have a lot of speed to chase Carroll around those baseline screens. Having Navarro on the ball (regardless of Llull or Rodriguez) is not all that terrible idea considering the alternative is him spending too much energy running after Carroll on defense and also that he doesn't have any shot at all, as we have the last two years of evidence. And despite the fact they don’t depend on his shot creation as much, Barça still needs Navarro out there about 31 minutes because he is their top shooter. Huertas is a reckless defender who could do well on Llull with energy matching energy (or recklessness matching recklessness) but might get broken down by Rodriguez. God has size to bother Rodriguez but if the game becomes transition oriented or if Real Madrid can get into a rhythm of early offense, Pascual might turn to Sada for rescue.

Upfront, it will be a battle between size/force and finesse. Laso has started Mirza Begic at center most of the year, but considering this is a one-game elimination setting, he should reconsider. Tomic has a length advantage and Jawai a size advantage over Slaughter but the American center provides much better pick-and-roll coverage than the Slovenian and, as mentioned previously, Barça doesn't go to the post all that much anymore, so Begic's main skill is neutralized. One play Barcelona ran with both Tomic and Jawai last week was a flash by the big, cutting from low post to low post and quickly turning around with a baby-hook after the catch. Slaughter even provides a better chance of defending that play because of his shot blocking. On the other end, Barça will desperately need an active performance from Lorbek, especially if CJ Wallace is unavailable due to the elbow injury. Felipe Reyes can change games with his offensive rebounding and Nikola Mirotic has the edge in quickness and athleticism. If Wallace in fact misses the game, there is a chance Pascual rolls with a lineup featuring both Tomic and Jawai when Lorbek subs out rather than putting young Marko Todorovic out there. Pascual flirted with the idea in the game of eight days ago; for just a couple of possessions but it was the first time I saw him do it. Or we might just see Barcelona go zone for a whole half again. My money is on this last one. The more you force Llull into decisions late in the shot clock, the best are your chances of getting a stop.

I believe Madrid is the favorite to advance, as they are more athletic and shoot better but it is not as if Barcelona has struggled to hang out with them these last two years. Pretty much every time these two meet, the game is close at the start of the fourth quarter and I don't expect it to be different here.

Meanwhile, the epic rematch of last year's championship game features two teams in a similar position they entered last season's Final Four in, though a lot has changed. CSKA Moscow got to Istanbul a year ago as the most dominant force in European ball. Andrei Kirilenko hung around during the NBA lockout and led the Russian powerhouse to 19 wins in 22 games. But all everyone saw in the end was the team blowing a 19-point lead with 12 minutes remaining, letting slide what would have been the club's seventh major European title, and head-coach Jonas Kazlauskas was let go. Old friend Ettore Messina returned – after three years spent coaching Real Madrid and assist-coaching Mike Brown with the Lakers – and he had to rebuild half-the-team as Kirilenko returned to the NBA, Alexey Shved left with him, Darjus Lavrinovic went back home, Jamont Gordon moved to Turkey and Ramunas Siskauskas retired.

Messina took the opportunity with the changes in personnel to also restructure the way the team plays. A lot of what CSKA did last year relied on post-ups for Nenad Krstic, Kirilenko's prolificacy in transition and the offensive glass and Milos Teodosic's taking a lot of chances on the pick-and-roll, which led to high assist totals but also a lot of turnovers. Under Messina, it took some time but CSKA evolved into the most complete offense in the continent. And to think that they almost stumbled on it, as it took injuries to Zoran Erceg and Andrey Vorontsevich for Messina to shift Viktor Khryapa to stretch-four. Simon Jatsch wrote here how the multi-dimensionality of their pick-and-roll makes it borderline impossible to contain it. On top of it, CSKA can run with Sonny Weems and Sasha Kaun, isolate Weems or post-up Krstic. CSKA leads the Euroleague in scoring per possession, averaging 112.6 points per 100 possessions.

For most of the season, they played elite defense as well, starting the quarterfinals ranked second in scoring allowed per possession and fifth in opponents' effective shooting. However, Caja Laboral tested the versatility of the Russians on defense, as Chapu Nocioni and Nemanja Bjelica created problems all over the court with the multi-dimensionality of their skill-sets. Baskonia averaged a stratospheric 121.3 points per 100 possessions in the series. Because Caja Laboral had no shot of stopping CSKA on the other end and some “controversial” officiating at the end of game four, Moscow advanced but Baskonia had a shot of forcing game five when it looked like CSKA was going to run them over after the first couple of games. That's a head-scratcher.

Olympiacos' stretch-fours aren't as versatile as Caja Laboral's. Georgios Printenzis and Pero Antic can hit the outside shot but aren't off the dribble players and don't have the same passing skills as Bjelica and Nocioni. Georgios Bartzokas should at least consider smaller lineups featuring Kostas Papanikolaou or Stratos Perperoglou at stretch-four, especially if Kyle Hines isn't health enough to log 25 minutes or more. Baskonia really exposed that weakness on CSKA and that's a path worth taking a look.

I'm not confident this Olympiacos' team is quite as capable as last year's, though. It's been a very uneven season for the defending champions. They lost two of the first three in the initial group stages, then won seven straight. Lost three of the first four in the top 16, then won eight of the next 10. Beat Anadolu Efes handily in the first two games of their quarterfinal series, then blew the lead and needed a second-half comeback to advance on game five. Last season's squad got hot at the right time, behind Vassilis Spanoulis' prolificacy, Papanikolaou's development and a stingy defense that evolved into elite status when Hines and Joey Dorsey were fully incorporated by the time the series against Montepaschi Siena rolled around. With Dorsey and Dusan Ivkovic gone and Hines dealing with nagging injuries all season, Olympiacos' defense hasn't been quite as good this campaign. They arrive at the Final Four allowing 102.8 points per 100 possessions and as the team that permitted the most points at the rim among Final Four participants. Put simply, Josh Powell and Giorgi Shermadini just aren't as good as Dorsey was those last couple months last season. Things are looking up as Acie Law, IV did tremendous work shutting down Jordan Farmar in the quarterfinals and Olympiacos allowed the second fewest points per possession in the round but Hines' health status is of significant importance. He was at one point rulled out of game five before giving it a go and playing 18 minutes. If Hines can't stay on the floor longer than that, it's hard to see how Olympiacos beats CSKA Moscow without another historic comeback.

Khryapa's combination of size, height and skill make him such a tough match-up but I believe pure athleticism is the best defense against him. Olympiacos could go with Papanikolaou on him and have Hines at center, especially with Kaun in the game, to guard the four-five pick-and-roll. It gets a bit trickier with Krstic, for whom CSKA Moscow can run some post-ups to take advantage of the size edge. But Messina has kind of fell out of love with Krstic in the second half of the season and it wouldn't surprise me if he is on the short end of the minute-split with Kaun at center. CSKA doesn't generate a whole lot of second chances, so the height disadvantage shouldn't hurt the Greeks on the boards.

Let's say a perfect world in which Olympiacos manages to neutralize CSKA's pick-and-roll well enough exists with Law, IV checking Teodosic and an athletic combination working around Khryapa. Then Moscow still has Weems to go to and that could be a problem. Olympiacos has signed Doron Perkins mid-season but he hasn't played all that much. Athletically-speaking, it is a no-brainer to have Perkins out there on Weems rather than Spanoulis, Martynas Gecevicius or Dimitrios Katsivelis. It's unclear Bartzokas trusts Perkins has absorbed all of the team's defensive principles by now, though. Papanikolaou will likely start on Weems and draw the assignment on the big lineups but if Bartzokas does go small at some point, Weems might be a escape valve for CSKA's offense. That's why they are just so hard to defend; there is just too many holes for a defense to try plugging.

On the other end, I'm curious to see what CSKA Moscow's approach regarding Spanoulis is going to be. Messina mostly started the big lineup with Weems and Khryapa on the wings and Erceg and Kaun upfront in the series against Caja Laboral. Who is he going to have checking Spanoulis early? We saw last year with Lorbek that having Spanoulis running at you all game long (Barça switches on pick-and-rolls) can affect your production on offense, so maybe Khryapa shouldn't be in consideration. Weems is no shut down defender. Dionte Christmas is not on the team anymore. Aaron Jackson can run with Spanoulis but with him on the court, CSKA has allowed 105 points per 100 possessions. Maybe an option should be try bothering Spanoulis with Theo Papaloukas' size but it's not clear whether the legend can still keep people in front of him or even direct them to the help anymore.

Though Olympiacos will be difficult for CSKA Moscow to guard too, I believe the Russian powerhouse is the favorite to advance to the championship game. Their offense is borderline uncontainable. Rod Higgins took a look at the variety of sets they run here. All of that said, after what took place last year, we are not supposed to discount Olympiacos anymore.

Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.

Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Lots of Decisions for the Bucks to Make

Rafael Uehara — Fri, 03 May 2013 16:22:42 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

After getting swept by the Heat in the first round, the Bucks can turn their attention to the many decisions they face this upcoming offseason. Franchise linchpin Brandon Jennings is up for restricted free agency and Monta Ellis has a player option that he is very likely to exercise to become an unrestricted free agent. Except for a couple of weeks there early in Jim Boylan’s tenure, the combination of Jennings and Ellis has mostly not worked. And now general-manager John Hammond (who got his extension at midseason) must decide between retaining both, either or neither.

Jennings is a quite good shooter off the dribble but struggles to finish at the rim (shooting 49.2% at the basket this season, according to basketball-reference). He recorded 156 more assists this year than the one before but outside of those couple of weeks he looked like the second coming of Steve Nash, the improvement in his playmaking wasn’t all that much noticeable really. Meanwhile, Ellis is what he is at this point of his career; a gunner capable of hitting big men in stride on some sweet pick-and-rolls but who will rather look for his shot on pretty much every touch, even when it’s misguided, with the result being a 1.09 point per shot average.

Even with LARRY SANDERS! behind them, the combo Jennings-Ellis just severely exposed the Bucks defensively. According to NBA.com/Stats/, in the 2295 minutes the duo shared the court this season (most of any combination of two Milwaukee players), the Bucks allowed an average of 104.3 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would rank bottom 10 among teams. And there wasn’t much payoff on offense, as lineups featuring the two were held to 101.5 points per 100 possessions, also a would-be bottom 10 ranking. 2295 minutes (even more if you choose to factor in the minutes after Ellis arrived from Golden State midway through the lockout-shortened season) should be enough data to assess it’s time for the Bucks to move on from the Jennings-Ellis experiment.

Who to keep, if any, is a more complex argument, depending on multiple variables. Jennings is younger and could still develop into a disciplined lead at the point, maintaining potential for some explosive random scoring outputs depending upon the state of his jump-shot that particular day. Ellis isn’t all that old either (2012-13 was his age 27 season) but after eight years in the league, it’s hard to see him taking his game to the next level in a starring role. Ellis has always been more suited to be Jason Terry than Dwyane Wade and the sooner he realizes this, the most he can accomplish in his career. But if he re-signs with the Bucks, it’s because he took the path of the most shots available.

Considering Scott Skiles was never much of a fan of the Jennings-Ellis experiment, one assumes Hammond sees no problem pushing things over his coach, so he might make decisions on Jennings and Ellis before hiring a new coach, as the team confirmed Wednesday Boylan will not return for next season. Outside of sitting down JJ Redick (for whom the front office gave up Tobias Harris, so they could have Redick for a mere couple of months) in the postseason, Boylan didn’t do anything absurd once he took over for Skiles but didn’t maximize the talent of the roster either. The only shot the Bucks had to push the Heat was playing their top three outside shooters (Redick, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Ersan Ilyasova) together for long minutes, but Boylan never took a look at that route.

The Bucks could have as little as $29.5 million on the books for next season, discounting Ellis, Jennings and Gustavo Ayon. Even bringing one of the guards at a healthy number around $10 million a year would maintain significant cap flexibility in the rebuilding of the team. And I am of the belief that the team needs to be rebuilt. I believe that if Boylan had played Redick and Dunleavy, Jr. together more the Bucks had a better shot of bothering the Heat the most simply because of the chance they could get red hot but Milwaukee isn't going anywhere with a wing rotation of Redick, Dunleavy, Jr., Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Marquis Daniels. Except for Daniels, those are all good players but the combination of them results in too many one-way players.

LARRY SANDERS! Evolved into an elite interior defender – the very best in the league, according to Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry – and after an awful first month to the season Ilyasova bounced back to the same performance that earned him a $40-million extension last summer. In extended run over the last five games of the season, John Henson showed that the potential to be become a disruptive interior defender is still there, though so is the need for him to gain more upper-body strength. And Epke Udoh is under contract for one more season. So, the Bucks are pretty much set upfront, and should focus all the resources on retooling the perimeter.

This is not a strong draft class but Milwaukee will have some interesting possibilities to add a wing with the 15th pick. Sergey Karasev ranked fourth in the VTB United league in scoring and averaged 15.73 points per game in the Eurocup, ranking just outside the top 15. Archie Goodwin was part of a disappointing Kentucky squad and shot just 26.6% from three-point range in his lone college season but his combination of size and athleticism make him a high profile prospect for this class's standards. Dario Saric is a historic figure among those that follow European youth competitions but is still under contract without an NBA out with Cibona Zagreb for another year and won't come over right away. And there is just too much unknown with Giannis Adetokunbo, though he is the prototype workout player, who will likely rise into lottery status once he comes over to show his athleticism and skill-set on the combine and private sessions with teams. In the second round, guys like Micheal Snaer, Deshaun Thomas and Tim Hardaway, Jr. should be targeted.

This is also not a strong free agent class. Most of the names on the pool (Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow, Marco Belinelli, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen, Al Farouq Aminu, Ronnie Brewer) aren't all the that much of an improvement over what Bucks already have, some are risky gambles (Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, Gerald Hendersen, Jr.) and a few (Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Andrei Kirilenko) might only choose to move to Milwaukee if the pay is exorbitant. Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon would be terrific fits for the 'backup point-guard who play starter's minutes' role, but those guys might be looking to start full time and earn around $8 million a year.

At coach, the obvious monster hire would be Stan Van Gundy. He is a difference maker who already proved in Orlando he can take the bad signings of a bad general-manager and make something work out of them. With LARRY SANDERS! anchoring the unit, Van Gundy could coach the Bucks into elite form on defense and with the right additions of talent to the offense as Stan Van will for sure modernize the attack, he could soon have them exactly where he had the Magic upon his departure, which would be step forward for ever-mediocre Bucks. Rumors are Stan Van might sit out another year, though. That's a bummer. I'm sure there is good choice within the pool of Nate McMillan, Mike Malone, Brian Shaw and a couple of other high profile assistant coaches waiting on the wings to be the next Tom Thibodeau. But apparently, Kelvin Sampson is a front runner to get the gig, so there is that.

It's a big summer for the Bucks. They have a lot of decisions to make. Many rumors have this franchise as the next to leverage relocation for a new arena deal. According to ESPN.com, Milwaukee ranked 27th in attendance. If the results on the court don't change, it is possible that region won't fight to keep the team as passionately as Sacramento just did for the Kings. So, there is a lot on Hammond's plate this upcoming offseason.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Challenging Offseason Ahead for the Lakers

Rafael Uehara — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:05:47 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

When the Lakers signed Steve Nash and traded for Dwight Howard last summer, common sense was they had reestablished themselves as legit championship contenders again, after getting swept by the Mavericks and losing to the Thunder in five in back-to-back years. And the theory was strong. It was expected Nash would slow down at 38 years old, but his ability to play off the ball with his fantastic shooting still made him the best backcourt teammate Kobe Bryant ever played with. And Howard was the one big man projected capable to make up for the defensive deficiencies of those in front of him.

Things didn’t go as expected, though, and this adventurous, tumultuous season unceremoniously ended on Sunday as the Spurs swept them in the first round of the postseason. I’m of the opinion that no one is to blame for the debacle of a year this was for the Lakers. Whether they had enough to insert themselves in the class of the Heat, Spurs and Thunder is hard to know now. They for sure had enough to do a lot better, if not for all the injuries that at one point or another took one of the core rotation players out of the lineup.

It all started when Howard returned too soon and in no moment early in the season looked like his former self. In the first seven years of his professional career, Howard missed a grant total of seven games. Up until midway through last season, Howard had proven to be extremely durable throughout his entire career. So, it didn’t look ludicrous when he actually made it back for opening night after back surgery sidelined him really late last season, forcing him to miss the last 12 games and the postseason. Struggling to be comfortable on the court, Howard could not impact the team’s defense as needed.

Then Nash broke his foot in the second game of the season in Portland. But Howard at half-speed and no Nash didn’t keep management from firing Mike Brown after four losses in the first five games. Shortly thereafter Pau Gasol started dealing with hamstring and foot problems of his own, Steve Blake and Jordan Hill were sidelined with very serious injuries, Mike D’Antoni was hired days after undergoing surgery himself, then as the push for the postseason became realistic Ron Artest hurt his knee and then Bryant blew his Achilles in the third to last game of the season. When you stop to think about it, how incompetent were the Jazz that they couldn’t make the postseason over this cursed team?

Now that the season is finally over, the Lakers can start looking ahead and thinking over how to restructure this team, which won’t be easy. A lot of hard decisions need to be made; probably none more important than whether or not to re-sign Howard. That’s a no-brainer, in my opinion, as late in the season, Howard took major steps towards regaining his form from the glory days in Orlando. With a full offseason to recover - one that is starting earlier than he has grown accustomed to – Howard should be back to where he was before back surgery. The Lakers had one of the five best records in the league post-All Star break and that was the case because their defense improved significantly as Howard impacted more and more on each passing game.

Decisions on Bryant and Gasol come next. Personally, I don’t believe a question will come up on Bryant at all. He is the most recognizable Laker this side of Magic Johnson. And he is a crazy person, who is totally reckless about his self being if it means him being out there on the court as he attempts to either tie Jordan in titles or pass him in scoring, so there still is a chance – even though remote – he manages to return at some point next season. Technically, there should be a discussion, however. LA already has $79.6 million committed in salaries for next season and that’s without accounting for a cap charge linked to Howard. As we saw this season – when the payroll was at $99.8 million, the Lakers have no problem paying the luxury tax. The issue is that starting this summer the restrictions on personnel addition become harder to navigate for tax payers. Sign-and-trades are out of the picture and trades must be dollar-for-dollar. Amnestying Bryant and erasing his $30-million dollar cap hit would be blasphemy but also the one move that would provide them the most flexibility to restructure this roster that featured six of the top nine rotation players older than 32. Hard to see this being the route the front office takes, though.

A way more likely scenario is the Lakers amnestying Artest and trading Gasol. But that’s not without complications either. Gasol is scheduled to earn $19.2 million next season and it is challenging to make a trade featuring a player earning that much work. For good teams, likely already over the cap and possibly in tax territory, adding Gasol would probably tie them to the same restrictions that make it difficult for the Lakers to make improvements to their roster now. Also, not every owner can afford to spend nearly $100 million in salaries. Involving a bad team with plenty of cap space to absorb some bad salary has its challenges too as the Lakers already have multiple future first round picks slotted for Phoenix and Orlando, and that bad team has to send something sizeable to someone in return too. Can you imagine anyone willing to take on Tyrus Thomas, Hedo Turkoglu, Andris Biedrins, Gerald Wallace or Drew Gooden? What can the Lakers realistically get in return that moves the needle more than Gasol so it would make sense for them to carry any of those guys? My guess is Gasol returns and either finishes his contract or gets dealt in-season.

One would think Nash then becomes the team’s most attractive trading chip but he has two years and $18 million left on his deal. As feared, Nash was not as much of an ageless, health wonder once he got away from that magical medical and training staff they have in Phoenix. The broken foot was just a broken foot and could have easily happened there too. But one assumes that in Phoenix, Nash would not have needed medication for pregnant women and a wheel chair to nurse his bad back. Or maybe, he would, I’m not a doctor, what do I know… Nash’s historically great shooting remains a valuable skill he brings to the table, even when struggling with injuries, as he shot for 43.8% from three-point range this season, but at $9 million, he is one very expensive spot-up shooter who is becoming increasingly less likely to get to the basket on those pick-and-rolls and who exposes your defense an awful lot.

All of this is to say, the Lakers have a very challenging offseason ahead of them. I said the exact same thing last season, though, and Mitch Kupchak did that thing that Mitch Kupchak does, in which Mitch Kupchak somehow figures out a way to always make a meaningful addition, even as you think Mitch Kupchak is cornered. So, who knows, maybe we will see Kevin Love or Danny Granger or Eric Gordon in purple and gold next season… But considering the dynamic between Gasol and Howard started working really well at the end of the season, maybe just taking a mulligan should be the approach here. Just work harder on finding Nate Robinsons, James Whites, Chris Copelands, Kenyon Martins and Chris Andersens, hope for some better luck and then maybe you are in position to take advantage of an injury to an opponent. That’s how the Spurs just became favorites to make the Finals.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Barcelona-Panathinaikos Game Five Preview

Rafael Uehara — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 18:35:58 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

This has been an extremely close series throughout. The first three games were decided by a combined mere five points (not that it stopped some to affirm one coach has thoroughly outcoached the other); decided on missed free-throws, a step-back three-pointer that went in despite a large human all over the shooter and a non-shooter passing up two wide-open three-pointers. Only game four featured some disparity between the teams but that was mostly due to the fact Barcelona was more desperate as it needed to win to force Thursday’s decisive game five and one can argue Panathinaikos wasn’t as well prepared as it should.

Sometimes only in desperation we take the necessary measures. Barcelona defended in zone the vast majority of game four. It was the most effective way to hide Juan Carlos Navarro, maximize the reckless Marcelinho Huertas, have God Jasikevicius on the court with both Huertas and Navarro for longer stretches, secure long minutes for Erazem Lorbek and depend less on the offensive challenged Victor Sada and CJ Wallace, besides the struggling Joe Ingles.

Barcelona closed the top 16 ranked second in scoring efficiency, but struggled in the first three games, getting held under a point per possession. By limiting the exposure of the team’s worst defenders, Pascual was able to keep Huertas, Navarro and Lorbek on the court for over 30 minutes each on game four and Barça was finally able to dismantle Panathinaikos’ prolific defense for 70 points on 68 possessions, behind 24 points in the lane and 27 from three-point range.

Lorbek hasn’t played as well as last season mostly because his role within the offense has changed but he remains an integral component for the team’s success, as he is way more versatile (with his passing, ability to attack players of the same size off the dribble, shoot from anywhere and transform busted plays into quick post-ups) a scoring threat than Wallace, who becomes useless on offense when his spot-up outside shot isn’t falling - which has been the case in this series. So, it’s no coincidence that Barça played its best offense when Lorbek was on the court the most time.

It will be curious to see how Argiris Pedoulakis adjusts for game five. In theory, Sofoklis Schortsanitis would be the best outlet for scoring against a zone and Sofo got more run in the last two games than he did in the first two but that was still only a combined 26 minutes. Barça forced both Stephane Lasme and Kostas Tsartsaris into making questionable decisions (the former with mid-range jumpers, the latter turning it over all around the place) and counted with some opportune poor three-point shooting by PAO.

One interesting scenario Pedoulakis hasn’t explored much is playing a smaller lineup (featuring Roko Ukic, Dimitris Diamantidis, Michael Bramos, Jonas Maciulus, Lasme) for extended stretches. If James Gist is 100%, then there really is no need as he combines the outside shooting and athleticism to attack closeouts, besides the size not to give up anything on defense. But Gist looked limited by injury last Thursday and struggled to finish against the crowd in the Catalan lane. If that’s the case again, maybe Pedoulakis should consider going small in a high leverage situation. Barça doesn’t post up Lorbek all that much anymore and even if they did, Maciulus could do a good enough job holding ground until the double comes and there is enough speed around with Bramos and Lasme to rotate effectively.

We are most likely to see the opposite, though. Both teams went super big at one point in the third quarter of game four, when Wallace-Lorbek-Tomic matched up Gist-Tsartsaris-Lasme upfront. Tsartsaris made too many bad decisions inside the zone and it is hard to justify his presence when he is such a negative on offense but if Schortsanitis gets in foul trouble or flat out tired too soon, Tsartsaris might still get the nod as he can still hold the ball higher than Lasme and Gist and see over the top of the swarming wing defenders. Defensively, Gist did great defending the perimeter, overwhelming God with his physicality and size to such a point that Pascual had to take him out of the game. So, Pedolakis could still go there and set up some better screening by the bigs playing off the ball, so that Tsartsaris have some clearer passes to make. It’s just as important that the perimeter players go better than five-for-23 from three-point range too.

Diamantidis will for sure play better, after somehow going scoreless on 0-for-5 shooting from three-point range in 35 minutes. He did have six assists but Panathinaikos doesn’t have enough firepower to win without him scoring. Considering Ukic had four points on 2-for-11 shooting on 25 minutes, it’s easy to understand how they were down 16 at the end of the third quarter. Maciulus (on post-ups against smaller defenders) and Bramos (in transition and off the dribble) are capable of creating something for themselves on occasion but without backcourt production, there just isn’t enough volume to go by a defense like Barcelona’s.

Panathinaikos will be more prepared to counter Barcelona’s zone and is likely to have more success on offense. At Palau Blaugrana, Barcelona will not shoot 12 fewer free-throws than Panathinaikos as it was the case last Thursday on OAKA, but the difference in the game might still come to whether or not Ingles and Alex Abrines provide anything on offense. If the zone continues to be effective, even if not as much as game four, it will permit Pascual to always have Huertas, Navarro and God out there in some combination and stretches with all three together. But even as that was the case and Wallace stole some minutes on the wing, Abrines and Ingles still combined for over 27 minutes. In a closer game, the combo doing better than a combined seven points on eight shots and no assists might be the difference between Barcelona or Panathinaikos advancing to the Final Four.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Nuggets v Warriors, the Funnest First-Round Series

Rafael Uehara — Sat, 20 Apr 2013 16:32:13 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Denver and Golden State rank second and fourth, respectively, in pace so this will be quite the fun series, especially because it features Stephen Curry, who might just be the coolest player to watch in the NBA right now. Over the last couple of months, he dropped 54 points on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden and 47 on the Lakers at Staples Center. It looks that every time Curry pulls up for a jumper, it is going in. He finished the season shooting 45.5% from three-point range, including a league-leading 52.8% on corner-three-pointers, according to NBA.com/Stats/.

I would love to see coaches being more proactive with cross matches on defense. George Karl should have Andre Iguodala guarding Curry since the tip-off of game one. I doubt that will be the case, though. So I’m curious to see if Ty Lawson takes this next step of his development and starts playing better defense. He ranked 252nd in the league in scoring allowed per possession, according to mysynergysports.com’s charting, and the Nuggets defended over six points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench, per NBA.com/advancedstats/.

The Nuggets led the league in scoring at the rim behind not just a transition-oriented offense fueled by aggressive leak-outs but because of strong attacks to the lane in the half-court. Grantland’s Zach Lowe constantly mentions how Lawson leads the league in drives that get him within 10 feet of the rim. Denver’s drive-and-kick offense stresses the opponent’s help-defense rotations to generate breakdowns and somebody is always open below the rim at some point.

Golden State will be relying on Andrew Bogut’s paint protection to contain Denver’s frenetic dribble penetration but it is not quite sure Bogut is still the sort of disrupting force on defense the Warriors will need to win this series. The Australian big was active in just 32 games this season and though that isn’t a lot, it isn’t too little data either. With him on the floor, the Warriors allowed 107.2 points per 100 possessions, 5.5 full points than with him out of the lineup.

You might think the Nuggets aren’t a force in prevention either, but they actually finished ninth in scoring allowed per possession. Iguodala’s presence, a healthier Chandler and a more grounded JaVale McGee are factors responsible for Denver’s improvement on defense. With Danilo Gallinari out for the playoffs and Kenneth Faried out at least for the opener, I’m curious to see what George Karl does with the rotation. At least one of Evan Fournier and Anthony Randolph will need to get some minutes and both have hurt the team’s defense significantly the last month.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Knicks v Celtics, the Top-Ranked Series in Spite

Rafael Uehara — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 19:29:44 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

This series will likely be the one featuring the most venom. Kevin Garnett said whatever he did to Carmelo Anthony about his wife and Anthony waited for Garnett at the Celtics’ bus after that first meeting of the season. Not much happened in the other two games but one assumes that Garnett will try his crap again in the postseason, simply because that’s what he does but because the Knicks are mostly a better team too. New York also just signed Quentin Richardson, whom Paul Pierce hates. Richardson likely won’t play a minute but his mere presence implies the likelihood things will heat up at any minute.

New York was very uneven during the season, starting red hot then playing mediocre ball midway through then finishing red hot again. Injuries to all their big men leave them vulnerable, though. Tyson Chandler plays when his neck allows him to. Kenyon Martin didn’t make 20 games without being sidelined. I’m not quite sure Amar’e Stoudemire still exists. Rasheed Wallace retired. Kurt Thomas was after what was by all accounts a semi-barbaric effort. Marcus Camby played in 24 games total this season. It will not take a long list of unexpected events for the Knicks to end up relying on Earl Barron at key moments during the series. It is actually quite likely that will be the case at some point.

I’m curious to see which JR Smith shows up for the playoffs. The one that shot around 40% throughout most of the season or the guy who averaged over five free throws a game in the last couple of months. It’s no coincidence that Knicks’ best stretches (early and late in the season) featured efficient play from Smith. He is the team’s second most talented shot creator, either to himself or others, but that aspect is neutralized when he is pulling up for ill-advised step-back jumpers all over the place. Either Courtney Lee or Avery Bradley will be assigned to guard him and it will be interesting to watch whether Smith regresses to his bad instincts once pressured by high quality defenders.

The Celtics notoriously struggle to generate offense. That was the case even with Rajon Rondo in the lineup and didn’t particularly get much worse statistically speaking without him. It has taken a bit more effort, though, which means Doc Rivers might continue playing Terrence Williams and Jordan Crawford. So deal with it. Aside from Pierce and Garnett playing out of their minds, the Celtics will need a good performance out of Brandon Sam Bass to pull the upset. Bass will be guarded by a combination of Anthony, Chris Copeland, Iman Shumpert (a good defender but undersized for this matchup), maybe even Steve Novak (though that’s only if Mike Woodson actually plays him decent minutes) and, hell, Jason Kidd (because sure, whatever…) Bass struggled in the first half of the season but was quite good during the garbage month of April, so he could carry that momentum into the postseason.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Heat v Bucks, Predictable But Not Uninteresting

Rafael Uehara — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 17:08:30 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Miami should blow by Milwaukee but that doesn’t mean there is nothing of interest in this series. Surprisingly, the Heat was average getting to the rim in volume this season but led the league in shooting percentage at the restricted area. The Bucks have in LARRY SANDERS! arguably the best interior defender in the NBA. Because everyone around him is overmatched defensively, SANDERS! hasn’t been capable of single handily keeping opponents away from the basket. Milwaukee allowed the most shots at the restricted area this season, according to NBA.com/Stats/. But he has been able to erase some mistakes with his shot blocking. LeBron James’ and Dwyane Wade’s aggression against SANDERS!’s rim protection will be something cool to watch.

Based on his usage of Marquis Daniels during the season, don’t be shocked if Jim Boylan tasks him with guarding either Wade or James for extended minutes and take Mike Dunleavy, Jr.’s minutes away in the process. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is one of the best individual defenders all around but has dealt with injuries late in the year and might not be a factor. Boylan is also likely to continue starting Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis together, which should result in the Bucks always playing catch-up. I hope Boylan plays John Henson at center on SANDERS!-less minutes rather than Samuel Dalembert or Joel Przybila because of some bullshit veteran experience rationalization.

I expect the Heat to return to last postseason’s starting lineup with Shane Battier at stretch-four/post defender at some point during this playoff run. I’m curious to see how soon Erik Spoelstra does it. He has not shown any hesitation of changing starting lineups in the middle of series at all during his career, so he might wait until he is forced to in the second-round but there is an argument that the sooner he does the inevitable, the better. If he continues to start two true big-men for now, many argue Chris Andersen should be starting rather than Udonis Haslem. Quite frankly, I don’t see much of a difference between the two within the first group but believe Andersen is way more impactful in the alternative lineups that don’t feature Bosh, which is probably why Spoelstra will keep him there at this moment.

Outside of Bosh or Wade or James getting hurt, I think the only way a team can beat Miami is through out-of-mind ball swinging and strong three-point shooting. That’s how the Mavericks did it a couple of years ago. The Bucks actually have some of the pieces to put something with that strategy in mind together, with JJ Redick, Dunleavy, Jr. and Ersan Ilyasova as three of the best outside shooters in the league, while all capable of putting the floor for a couple of dribbles and find a spot-up option despite their lack of speed at their respective positions. Lineups featuring all three of them would be giving up a lot defensively, even with SANDERS! behind them, but it’s not like the Bucks have much of a legit shot playing by conventional thinking of balance. Can’t see that being a strategy Boylan uses, though. Redick, Dunleavy, Jr. and Ilyasova shared the court a grant total of 129 minutes, according to NBA.com/Stats/.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

The Context on Erazem Lorbek’s Bad Season

Rafael Uehara — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 15:52:49 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Erazem Lorbek was Regal FC Barcelona’s best and most important player last season. Though Juan Carlos Navarro remained of critical importance, it was Lorbek the one responsible for carrying the team’s outdated offense. If not for Andrei Kirilenko’s one-season cameo, Lorbek would likely have earned Euroleague MVP honors. With Navarro’s conditioning deteriorating as the year went along and Marcelinho Huertas continuing to have very little freedom within the attack, Barcelona grew progressively more codependent of Lorbek, to the point that when he chose a bad day to have a bad day, Barça couldn’t generate offense against Dusan Ivkovic’s stingy Olympiacos defense in the Euroleague semifinal.

After that underwhelming performance, Lorbek drew some criticism but bounced back with a quality run in the Spanish ACB’s postseason, earning Finals MVP honors as an unusually underdog Barça squad managed to overcome arch-rivals Real Madrid once more. With such a prolific year and his contract at Palau Blaugrana expiring, rumor was Lorbek would join the San Antonio Spurs in the summer. Except that looking to retain its best player (perhaps after assessing that there was no replacement at the same caliber in the market as Joel Freeland also bolted for the NBA), Barcelona offered him the richest contract in European basketball (reportedly higher than Navarro’s and Rudy Fernandez’s) and Lorbek chose to stay.

But things haven’t gone the way last year’s went. In order not to be so one-dimensional yet again, Barcelona replaced its defensive stalwarts at center with more offensive pedigree and head-coach Xavi Pascual modernized the attack, shifting away from Lorbek in the post to more perimeter-oriented sets featuring heavy usage of 1-5 pick-and-rolls and motion concepts. Barcelona ran lots of pick-and-rolls last season but the vast majority of them were centered on Navarro and Lorbek. This season, Huertas has been a lot more involved, Saras Jasikevicius was brought in and even Joe Ingles got to do some playmaking early in the season when Navarro was out. And centers Ante Tomic and Nathan Jawai are mostly the primary screeners.

So, the context regarding Lorbek’s low-profile year is that his role within the offense has changed significantly. He is simply not being relied upon as much. According to gigabaset.org, his usage-rate per game has declined from 11.27 to 8.93. Lorbek is no longer featured in the low block as often and Pascual has mostly used him as a stretch-four, camping around the perimeter away from the pick-and-roll action or cutting for foul line catch-and-shoots on the motion stuff. He has mostly excelled at his assignment, gunning 50% from three-point range in Euroleague play, though after a couple of cold outside shooting outings, he is now at 28% in the Spanish ACB. It just hasn’t been as shinny as last season.

His Euroleague minutes are down from 25 a game a year ago to 20-and-a-half this campaign but I think it can mostly be explained by Pascual’s feel that this team needs CJ Wallace’s defensive presence more, especially in this late stretch, rather than a particular unhappiness with Lorbek’s low key performance. Barça has added defensive challenged centers in Tomic and Jawai and part of why they have continued to field the stingiest defense in European ball is due to Wallace’s impact in prevention. According to in-the-game.org, lineups featuring Wallace are allowing 93.7 points per 100 possessions in comparison to 96.5 with Lorbek. Though he isn’t dead weight in prevention, Barça defends better without Lorbek in the lineup.

The first couple games of the Euroleague quarterfinal series against Panathinaikos pretty much accurately encapsulates Lorbek’s season. He wasn’t featured as much on offense and Pascual preferred to have the limited Wallace out there instead of Lorbek late in games. By my count, Lorbek was featured in just 15 of Barcelona’s 147 possessions over the first two games; eight post-ups, three spot-ups, one in transition, one floating around the baseline off the ball, one pick-and-roll and one wing isolation. He has just seven points on 2-for-9 shooting in 38 minutes of playing time in the series.

Lorbek has been transformed into a bonafide role player. His scoring is down from 13 to just under 10 a game this season. We have seen flashes of that force he was a year ago (terrific 21-point outing against Olympiacos last month) but that's no longer what is asked of him. It can't be ignored he really is struggling over this latest stretch, however, and though Barça doesn't rely on him to generate all of their offense anymore, he is still their second best long-range shooter behind Navarro and without production from him, Panathinaikos can load up the strong side on pick-and-rolls and have the wing defenders pack it in to take away the lob to Tomic and Jawai. It remains of huge importance for Barça that Lorbek can make a positive impact in this series, either attacking closeouts some more or scoring with his touches on the post just enough to be a threat so PAO can't go small and maximize the dribble drive offense that helped them tie the series.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Tough Draw for Overlooked Maccabi Tel Aviv

Rafael Uehara — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 02:03:43 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Of all the top contenders for the Euroleague championship, Maccabi Tel Aviv opens the quarterfinals as the least hyped. Even Anadolu Efes has gotten some love, while David Blatt’s squad remains highly underrated. This roster has no Theo Papaloukas, no Sofoklis Schortsanitis, no Keith Langford, no Richard Hendrix, no Chuck Eidson, no Doron Perkins and no Jeremy Pargo. But this starless team (with all due respect to Devin Smith and Shawn James) looked at times as the most poised of the Blatt Era to go all the way.

After struggling at the start of the top 16, Maccabi is peaking at the exact right time, having won six of their last seven games and losing to Barcelona at Palau Blaugrana by just three points last week. They reach the quarterfinals with tremendous momentum, behind quality balance between offense and defense. Maccabi leads the Euroleague in scoring per possession (though mostly thanks a 101-point effort against Besiktas) and ranks fifth in scoring allowed per possession.

Looking to the maximize the athletic potential of his roster, Blatt has Maccabi playing aggressive defense, with David Logan, Ricky Hickman and Yogev Ohayon free to apply pressure on opposing ball-handlers and be active attacking passing lanes thanks to the shot-blocking protection of James behind them. Maccabi leads the league in steal-rate and block-rate. Takeaways, paint protection (opponents shoot just 59.7% at the rim) and discipline (the team is second in opponents’ free-throw rate) are at the core of Maccabi’s defensive prolificacy, which they use to ignite their offense on the other end.

Maccabi takes the most mid-range jumpers in the league and gets to the foul line at below average rate. A huge chunk of their easy scoring comes in transition and on putbacks, and James often gets those trailing on the break. They rank third in the league in three-point shooting and turn the ball over few times but points at the rim are an essential requisite for championship contention. Maccabi doesn’t get to the restricted area as often as Barcelona, CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos do but shoots 66.8% when they get there, thanks in large part to points off turnovers.

The quarterfinal series against Real Madrid is statistically a head-to-head between teams with similar profiles. Madrid scores and prevents at about the exact same level. They lost three of four in Euroleague play and lost to Valência in the Spanish ACB on Sunday, but did a lot of good this season before dealing with this semi-crisis, including significant improvement on defense.

And they project to hold a severe advantage over Maccabi in rebounding. The Israeli club ranks last in defensive-rebounding rate among the quarterfinals participants, while Real Madrid ranks first in offensive-rebounding rate. Caner-Medley and Lior Eliyahu are poor rebounders for their size. Maccabi tried signing Aron Baynes after the initial group stages but judged the transfer fee asked by Union Olimpija too high, and settled for Planinic instead. The 23-year-old is yet to help.

Madrid should also try taking advantage of the strength-challenged James in the post, pairing Felipe Reyes with Nikola Mirotic more than they have done this season or maybe even with Mirza Begic. It isn’t unthinkable we might see some Rafael Hettsheimeir too.

Real Madrid is also the team that least turns it over in the Euroleague. Sergio Llull is a shaky ball-handler and Rudy Fernandez can be reckless at times, but Pablo Laso still has reliable options such as Sergio Rodriguez and Don Draper to go to if the starters can’t negotiate the on-ball pressure well.

So, to sum up: Real Madrid is a tough draw for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Blatt’s squad arrives playing better ball as of late but still open the series as underdogs.

Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.

Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

CSKA Moscow Open Quarterfinals as Top Favorite for Euroleague Championship

Rafael Uehara — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 20:23:24 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

CSKA Moscow was the most dominant force in European basketball last season. Fueled by Andrei Kirilenko’s phenomenal all-around game, the Russian powerhouse won 19 of its 22 games in the Euroleague, but since one of the losses was to Olympiacos Piraeus in the championship game, when the team held a 19-point lead with 12 minutes remaining, head-coach Jonas Kazlauskas was let go. With the departures of Kirilenko and key reserve Alexey Shved to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Darjus Lavrinovic to Zalgiris Kaunas and Jamont Gordon to Galatasaray, besides the retirement of Ramunas Siskaukas, CSKA Moscow essentially had half-the-team to rebuild.

Management did very well, bringing in old friend Ettore Messina - after three years away spent coaching Real Madrid and assist-coaching Mike Brown with the Los Angeles Lakers - to run the show and signing Aaron Jackson, Drew Nicholas, Vladimir Micov, Sonny Weems and Zoran Erceg for the vacated positions, amazing rumors that the club would be working on a shorter budget for additions. Though life without Kirilenko was expected to be more challenging, expectations still were very high for the Russian powerhouse coming into the season, as key players to last year’s success like Nenad Krstic, Milos Teodosic and Viktor Khryapa remained in place.

Early on, the club showed to be a work in progress, though. CSKA won its first four games but then suffered the worst loss in club history at home, when Barcelona visited Universal Sports Hall and pounded the Russian empire by 21, holding them to just 60 points on 73 possessions. The offense just wasn’t crisp enough, and at times featured too much individualistic play. It was all up from there. Messina’s team went on winning streaks of nine and six games. The offense improved once Khryapa started being featured as hub for the entire attack. Erceg got hurt and Messina shifted Khryapa to stretch-four, which made CSKA’s pick-and-rolls nearly unstoppable to contain, as in-the-game.org’s Simon Jatch breaks it down in this post. Moscow enters the quarterfinals ranked fifth in the Euroleague in scoring per possession and first in effective shooting, behind league-leading percentages in shooting at the rim and from three-point range.

Some thought Teodosic was going to bump heads with Messina, but the volatile Serbian point-guard has had a much better year shooting the ball than he did last season, including a solid 36.8% from three-point range. His playmaking has also played a large role on CSKA’s elite scoring status. As have the big men’s finishing. Despite getting fewer post-ups than last season, Krstic has remained a top scoring option upfront, ranking fifth in the league in scoring per possession. Number one in that category is Sasha Kaun. Fully healthy, over a full year removed from undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, Kaun has his lift and athleticism back, sprinting down the court in transition and playing above the rim. And in Weems, CSKA has one of the most prolific individual scorers of the European game who can also be fit within the offense thanks to his outstanding 41% three-point shooting.

But as good as the offense is, Messina has done perhaps an even better job coaching the defense. CSKA enters the quarterfinals ranked second in scoring allowed per possession and fifth in opponents’ effective shooting. There is plenty of athleticism in the perimeter with Weems, Vladimir Micov and Aaron Jackson and Kaun’s shot-blocking makes up for some of the few mistakes that occur, but considering that they are pretty vulnerable at the point with Teodosic and Papaloukas, it’s quite surprising how good they are in prevention, all the while without fouling – they rank third in opponents’ free-throw rate.

With Pete Mickeal done for the season and Juan Carlos Navarro’s always uncertain health status, Barcelona is vulnerable against Panathinaikos. Real Madrid has stumbled a bit lately. Olympiacos is peaking but not at the same level as last year. So, CSKA Moscow enters the quarterfinals as the top favorite to win it all, in my honest opinion. We shouldn’t expect them to cruise through Caja Laboral because Baskonia might just be immortal but it’s hard to project how the upset can occur. CSKA will have the better players, the better units and the better coach in the series.

Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.

Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Though Not a Force, Panathinaikos Faces Dominant Barcelona with Good Odds

Rafael Uehara — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 17:24:49 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Even though franchise linchpin Dimitris Diamantidis stayed, this has been the beginning of a new era for Panathinaikos. Zeljko Obradovic left in the offseason and so did other cornerstones like Mike Batiste, Nick Calathes, God Saras Jasikevicius, Antonis Fotsis, Romain Sato and Kostas Kaimakoglou. Word was ownership shortened the budget for roster acquisition but those rumors turned out to be largely exaggerated as PAO reloaded with a number of high profile signings, such as Roko Ukic, Michael Bramos, Jonas Maciulus, Andy Panko and Sofoklis Schortsanitis.

With a new boss in charge and significant roster turnover, it took some time for new-look PAO to take shape. The Greens started the Euroleague with three losses in their first five games, which generated some anxiety in Athens. They went on to win four straight to advance to the top 16, though, where they gained strength and won nine of 14 games, despite making a couple more changes (additions of Marcus Banks and James Gist, dispatching of Panko, Derwin Kitchen and Hilton Armstrong) and dealing with some nagging injuries to Diamantidis, Ukic and Schortsanitis in the process.

Panathinaikos started the season mostly relying on Sofo as main dimension to the offense, with Panko struggling and the combo Ukic-Diamantidis trying to figure out how to coexist. Schortsanitis was in great shape, engaged to the program and hitting his free-throws. But injuries and good old foul trouble started limiting his effect. He averaged just 12 minutes a game in the top 16. PAO’s offense has never really fully recovered. The Greens rank 13th in the Euroleague in scoring per possession. Schortsanitis’s shot creation in the low block was the only elite aspect Panathinaikos had in its offense. They are very average jump-shooting from any area of the floor and getting to the foul line.

Significant improvement on defense, up to elite status, is how PAO managed to reach the quarterfinals. Without Schortsanitis, head-coach Argiris Pedoulakis started going towards more athletic frontcourt combinations, especially since the arrival of Gist. Panathinaikos’ rise in defensive prolificacy can be tracked to the point Pedoulakis shifted Stephane Lasme to center. With him on the floor, PAO is allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions, mark that would rank third in the league overall. The Greens finished the top 16 ranked fourth in the Euroleague in scoring allowed per possession and second in opponents’ effective shooting.

This team hasn’t particularly looked like a legit contender for the championship at any point this season. They will be underdogs in the series versus Barcelona, but do have a chance to pull the upset against the team that has been the most dominant in the continental league up until this point. Barça is a good matchup for PAO, as a couple of the reasons from that 2011 series remain. That year Barça was fresh off winning the Euroleague crown the season before but was shut down by Obradovic’s machine, which went on to win the title that season.

Diamantidis’ presence as secondary ball-handler forces Xavi Pascual to decide whether to have his best perimeter defender – Victor Sada – guard him off the ball or assign him to either Ukic or Banks, with the vulnerability being Pete Mickeal is out again and it’s a tough challenge for Joe Ingles to guard either one of PAO’s three guards. Pascual will likely try to hide Juan Carlos Navarro on Maciulus but that might be dangerous too. The Lithuanian swingman posted-up Sonny Weems with a lot of success last week against CSKA Moscow and will for sure try to do the same against way less physically gifted Navarro.

And there is also the issue of Schortsanitis. Pascual has a lot of respect for the mammoth center. For the last two years, Kosta Perovic’s sole purpose on Barcelona’s roster was playing post defense against Schortsanitis. Pascual’s option to match up Sofo’s size is Nathan Jawai, who is very vulnerable guarding the pick-and-roll in the perimeter. With Jawai on the floor, Barcelona is very aggressive compressing in help-defense (even disregarding corner discipline) and that’s something Panathinaikos may be able to explore with Banks’ speed getting into the lane and Maciulus’ 42.1% three-point shooting.

PAO also has to guard Barça on the other end but that will be a lot easier if they can force Pascual to opt out of lineups featuring any of Marcelinho Huertas, God Jasikevicus and Ante Tomic for extended stretches due to matchup purposes. If they can’t, though, Tomic might expose Lasme in the post. Look out for Erazem Lorbek possibly getting more post-ups this series as well. Though Barça has modernized its offense and gone away from excessive amount of post-ups for the highest paid player in Europe, Gist is strength-challenged and Lorbek could take advantage of him there, forcing Pedoulakis to sub in Kostas Tsartsaris and downgrade the team’s pick-and-roll coverage.

My point is this series, more the most other, will be decided by matchups and which team manages to capitalize on their advantages at a higher rate, regardless of which state they arrived to this point. So, PAO, though not the force we grown accustomed them to be in the Obradovic era, faces dominant Barcelona with good odds to fight their way to yet another Final Four, in which case we might have to wonder out loud if Diamantidis isn’t the greatest European player of all time.

Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.

Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

As Quarterfinals Approach, Barcelona Somewhere in Between Dominant and Vulnerable

Rafael Uehara — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 23:40:44 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Winning 22 of its 24 games, leading the league in scoring allowed per possession and ranking second in scoring per possession, Barcelona has played the most dominant ball in the Euroleague as the quarterfinals approach. The Catalan powerhouse hosts Greek empire Panathinaikos on Tuesday – April, the 9th – in game one of the playoff series rematch from a couple of years ago, when Barça fresh off winning the Euroleague crown the year before was demolished in four games by Zeljko Obradovic’s squad, which went on to win the title that season.

Much like that time, Barcelona is seen as the favorites to advance to the Final Four as the series starts. Xavi Pascual’s squad is yet again playing the best defense in European basketball, leading the Euroleague in defensive efficiency, almost five points per 100 possessions better than second-ranked CSKA Moscow. That’s an incredible accomplishment considering cornerstones to their historic campaign in prevention last season Boniface N’Dong, Fran Vázquez and Kosta Perovic were replaced by Ante Tomic and Nathan Jawai, deemed as below average defenders before arriving at Palau Blaugrana.

Pascual has managed to take the most out of Tomic, as the seven-foot-three Croatian big has developed into a legit top flight center with an outstanding season up until this point, and hide Jawai’s reluctance to help in space most of the time. Behind terrific individual play from Tomic, Victor Sada, Joe Ingles, CJ Wallace and Pete Mickeal and commitment and attention to detail from the entire team in pick-and-roll defense and help assignments, Barça has held opponents to just 94.5 points per 100 possessions and an incredible .463 effective-field goal percentage.

But Pascual’s most impressive job perhaps has been modernizing the offense. Last season, Barcelona ran an attack codependent of Erazem Lorbek and Juan Carlos Navarro and when Navarro dealt with plantar fasciitis at the end of the year and Lorbek chose a bad day to have a bad day, Barça was completely shut down by Olympiacos in the Final Four. Pascual showed his willingness to be a little more open minded trading off defense for offense and it’s why Tomic and Jawai were signed. He shifted the attack to a more perimeter-oriented offense, going away from excessive amount of posts-ups for Lorbek and expanding pick-and-roll combinations.

Barcelona is averaging 112.8 points per 100 possessions, posting a .573 effective field-goal percentage. With Marcelinho Huertas - deemed the best point-guard in Europe upon his arrival to Palau Blaugrana a couple of years ago - more involved and with more freedom to create off high screens, Ingles doing really well when he fill in for Navarro early in the season and God Sarunas Jasikevicius proving he still has plenty left in the tank, Barça has run a much healthier attack than a season ago, even as Navarro has once more dealt with limiting injuries. It leads the league in scoring at the rim and ranks third in assists.

What makes Barcelona vulnerable is the specific matchup to Panathinaikos. PAO isn’t the same team it was two years ago. Obradovic is gone, Mike Batiste is gone, Nike Calathes is gone, Romain Sato is gone and so is Kostas Kaimakoglou. But Dimitris Diamantidis is still there and the Greens still play one of the stingiest defenses in the continent, arriving to the quarterfinals ranked fourth in scoring allowed per possession and second in opponents’ effective shooting. After an uneven initial group stages, PAO gained strength once it traded Andy Panko for James Gist, as the team holds a +14.1 point differential per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

After starting the year relying on Sofoklis Schortsanitis as main dimension to the offense, Panathinaikos went towards more athletic frontcourt combinations in the top 16 after injuries and good old foul trouble limited Schortsanitis to just 12 minutes per game in the last 14 contests. Sofo’s role in the upcoming quarterfinals series is tremendously meaningful, though. Pascual has a lot of respect for Schortsanitis’ potential. He leads the league in shots at the rim per 28 minutes and finishes them at 60% clip. Perovic’s sole purpose for Barcelona the last couple of seasons was playing post defense against the mammoth Sofo.

Tomic has gotten the most minutes at center, with the split mostly around the 25-15 neighborhood. But we shouldn’t be shocked if he takes a backseat to Jawai here as long as Schortsanitis is on the floor. Not just because of the similar body type, but because the best way to limit Sofo and force him out of the game is to get him in foul trouble, and Jawai is the best option for that purpose because of his capability to play above the rim. That might expose Barcelona’s defense to PAO’s guards in the pick-and-roll, though, as Jawai still gets killed in space as Maccabi managed to expose last week.

Perhaps because he was ordered to be more aggressive compressing when Jawai is on the floor or simply because he is less disciplined and athletic on close-outs than Pete Mickeal, Ingles has helped off the corners an uncomfortable amount the last couple of weeks and that’s another area Panathinaikos can expose, with Marcus Banks’ speed getting into the lane and Jonas Maciulus’ 42.1% three-point shooting. It is unfortunate Jason Kapono is no longer on the roster, because he could have been a tremendous asset in this series, especially considering they held on fine on defense (why teams don’t play him) despite him.

Injuries could also play a role in a potential demise of Barça. Mickeal is gone for the season with pulmonary embolism. He missed that 2011 series with the same problem and his absence was deeply felt. Barça was short one perimeter defender. Ricky Rubio didn’t play much in that series due to a massive offensive slump and Sada could guard only one of Diamantidis and Calathes. Ingles is better than Alan Anderson and has done well enough that he will get a shot at the NBA next season, but Banks and Roko Ukic should be difficult challenges for him, especially if it’s Jawai and not Tomic behind him.

And who knows in which condition Navarro is in… The legend was seen hurting in the sidelines against Maccabi last week, testing his mobility during a timeout late in the game, and was held out of Sunday’s game against Blusens Monbus in the Spanish ACB. Though he is no longer the team’s sole source of pick-and-roll running and Barça as a team has shot better from three-point range than in years past, Navarro is still the team’s most dangerous scoring threat and top shooter. His presence is essential. Alex Abrines looked really good the last two games, but I don’t think anyone expects him to do as well against PAO.

Barcelona has played some of the best basketball in the continent up until now. A 22-2 record is the statistical embodiment of dominant play. And they are still the top favorite to win the title as the quarterfinals begin next Tuesday. But Mickeal’s illness, Navarro’s uncertain health status and the specific matchup with Panathinaikos have them vulnerable to another disappointing end of season.

Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.

Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Elite Paint Protection, Streaky Outside Shooting Anchor Wichita State’s Final Four Run

Rafael Uehara — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 15:45:31 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Wichita State reaches the Final Four for the first time in school behind discipline and a perfect example of the volatility of outside shooting in college basketball, especially in the NCAA tournament. On March Madness, teams that do fine relying on the jump-shot to score all year go suddenly cold and are taken down by Belmont or Norfolk State and teams with mediocre campaigns gunning from three-point range suddenly go on a four-game hot streak and make it to the third weekend.

Wichita State ranked 173rd in the country in three-point shooting this season, hitting from beyond the arc at a 34% clip. But in their wins against Gonzaga, La Salle and Ohio State, the Shockers shot 50%, 41.5% and 40% from long-range. In order to pull the upset over the top-seed Bulldogs, they got 42 points off three-pointers, more than double of the 19.8 they averaged during the regular-season. The return of the team’s top spot-up threat, Ron Baker, to the lineup after missing a chunk of the year could help explain the spike in outside accuracy, however Baker is responsible for only six of WSU’s 29 three-pointers in the tournament. The team as whole just got hot at the right time.

But chalking up Wichita State’s Final Four run simply to ordinary streaky shooting is misguided. Their smoking-hot gunning was integral to the Shockers getting to the third weekend, adding a dimension of elite scoring to an average offense that needed one as it ranked 51st in scoring per possession, 101st in effective shooting and 120th in free-throws made per 100 possessions, according to teamrankings.com. WSU’s defensive prolificacy was perhaps the most important reason why they got out of their corner of the bracket, though.

Wichita State doesn’t pressure ball handlers in extended presses like Louisville or confuses opponents with its zone like Syracuse. What the Shockers do extremely well is protect the paint, with outstanding discipline in help-defense and weak-side rotations. It’s essentially a pro defense Gregg Marshall has installed, one that takes advantage of Carl Hall’s capability of containing dribble penetration by flashing on the pick-and-roll and Hall’s and Ehimen Orukpe’s shot blocking to keep opponents from breaking WSU’s guards off the dribble. The most impressive aspect, in my opinion, though, is how Marshall has gotten his perimeter players to help aggressively.

Against Gonzaga, a team that relied on post-ups by Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris – two pro prospects – a great deal, Wichita State’s guards and wings provided the big men plenty of help with doubles and at times formed a triangle around the opponent at the catch in an attempt to force him into passing out of the deep post position. The Shockers held the Bulldogs to just six points on 11 post-ups, well below their elite average, and with four of those six coming at the foul line.

Ohio State was held under 10 shots in the lane out of the pick-and-roll. Though Hall’s contain of the driver was still their most important asset, it’s how they defended those sets with all five guys in or around the lane that intimidated Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott, LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith, Jr. and Deshaun Thomas from driving to the basket off screens or hitting Amir Williams as he rolled.

This is nothing new for Wichita State. According to hoop-math.com, only 27% of opponents’ shots were at the rim and they have been held to 56% shooting. The Shockers rank third in the country in block rate in the restricted area and they are elite also preventing second-chance scoring, ranking sixth in defensive rebounding. As their offense got hot at the right time to provide much needed balance, WSU has been able to ride its high functioning defense (35th in scoring allowed per possession, according to teamrankings.com) into championship contention. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, they held opponents under a point per possession in three of their four games in the tournament. In the season, they have won 23 of the 24 games when that was the case.

Aggressive paint packing and help-defense leaves you exposed to three-point shooting, and in fact Marshall’s team has allowed the 21st most attempts from long-range. But as pointed early, outside shooting is extremely unreliable in college basketball. Odds are if you take away the scores at the rim, you will be in position to win the game late. Add that to streaky shooting, and you will be beating top favorites convincingly midway through the second-half. That’s how Wichita State has gotten here.

The Shockers will still be underdogs against Louisville. They have to stop sending opponents to the foul line. Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, La Salle and Ohio State shot a combined 94 free-throws in four games. They are averaging over 19 personals a game. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith will be tough challenges to the ball-handling of Tekele Cotton, Malcolm Armstead and Fred Van Vleet. Louisville ranks second in turnover defense and the Cardinals are elite scoring in transition. That’s how they might be able to get easy scoring against WSU. Also, the game will be played in a football stadium and jump-shooting tends to be crappy when basketball games are played on those.

But based on what we have seen from them in this run, there should be no shock if Wichita State manages to advance to Monday night. Marshall’s team has proven to be tough, disciplined and elite in one key aspect. The jump-shooting is projected to be bad both ways, and the Shockers know they can protect the rim in the half-court. It will be all about whether or not they candle Louisville’s press and keep the turnover-count down.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Examining Barcelona’s Status in a Post-Pete Mickeal World

Rafael Uehara — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 17:29:20 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Regal FC Barcelona confirmed with a press release on Monday – March, the 25th – that swingman Pete Mickeal will miss the remainder of the season due to a pulmonary embolism. Mickeal played just nine minutes against Caja Laboral in the Euroleague last Thursday, did not participate on Barça’s 92-71 win over Cajasol in the Spanish ACB on Saturday after presenting with first symptoms and had to be rushed to the hospital on Sunday. This is a recurring health scare for the 35-year-old, who missed the entire 2010-2011 season in part because of a pulmonary embolism.

After struggling to regain top form last season, Mickeal was having a terrific campaign a full year and a half removed from those problems, posting averages of 25 minutes and about 11 points on 55.3% shooting in both domestic and continental leagues. Despite changes in the frontline, Barcelona is once again playing the most dominant defense in all of Europe and there is no doubt Mickeal’s prolificacy on that end of the floor is a huge part of why. According to gigabasket.org, Barcelona is allowing just 89.8 points per 100 possessions in 523 minutes with Mickeal in the lineup.

Two years ago, Barcelona signed Alan Anderson midseason as it became obvious Mickeal wouldn’t return. Anderson wasn’t the same caliber of defender Mickeal is but he added a dimension of shot creation off the dribble to the offense that forced head-coach Xavi Pascual to have him out there maybe a bit more than he was comfortable with. Barcelona scored a whopping 1.08 points per possession in the Euroleague with Anderson on the court. But eventually the stage got a little too big for him and Anderson melted down in the quarterfinals against Panathinaikos.

This won’t happen this season. The deadline to register players to play in the current Euroleague season was a month ago. Also, Anderson plays for the Raptors now and though he is earning the minimum, there is no chance he would ask out even if Barça could and did call. So, Pascual will rely on one of Brad Oleson, Joe Ingles, Xabi Rabaseda and Álex Abrines replace Mickeal; a mighty tall order. His elite individual defense was key limiting Ante Tomic’s and Nathan Jawai’s exposure. His attacking nature helped create spot-up opportunities for Juan Carlos Navarro. Mickeal ranked second in the team in points in the lane among Europe’s best, behind only Tomic.

Oleson is a terrific outside shooter and a tremendous insurance policy behind Navarro. But to pair him up with Juan Carlos, as Pascual indicated it should be the path he will likely take in the Spanish ACB, is a bit of a stretch. Oleson is a below average defender and a one-dimensional scoring threat. In 15 Euroleague games, Oleson scored in the lane just eight times. He is a better ball-handler and Pascual could use that skill of his to free Victor Sada to play off the ball entirely – as Sada is a terrific weak-side current and can play above the rim – but it won’t make up for what Mickeal created off the bounce.

Oleson can’t play in the Euroleague, however, as he has already played in the top 16 for Baskonia, so on weekdays the spot should be Ingles’s. The Aussie was terrific in the absence of Navarro early in the season. In a larger role – Barcelona’s offense shifted to a more perimeter-oriented scheme – Ingles did well, shooting 53.8% from the field (including 42.9% from three-point range) in the initial group stages. But Navarro returned and Ingles’s minutes went from the twenties to the mid-teens in the Euroleague. Jasikevicius got into basketball shape and Ingles had to be deactivated in the Spanish ACB due to Barça’s excess of foreigners. He hasn’t played a whole lot in the last couple of months. It’s questionable he can reach that November-December level of play that raised the interest of a number of NBA teams.

Theoretically speaking, Rabaseda would be the best suited for the role. He has a similar body type to Mickeal’s, impacts on defense similarly and possesses the athleticism to get to the rim Barcelona’s other wings don’t. In the 200 Euroleague minutes Rabaseda has been on the court, Barça has allowed just 80 points per 100 possessions, according to gigabasket.org. That mark would lead the league by a mile. 19 of his 20 two-point shots have come in the lane. But despite all the encouraging signs whenever Pascual does throw him out there, Rabaseda has not done enough to earn a consistent spot in the rotation in over a season-and-a-half since returning from Baloncesto Fuenlabrada.

Abrines is an even bigger shot. Signed from Unicaja Malaga in the summer, the team hoped the 20-year-old could play the Giancarlo Basile role – bringing the outside shooting it has missed badly since the Italian gunner was of huge help in the championship year – for now and then develop into a linchpin of the post-Navarro Era. The first part of that plan has failed, to such an extent that Barça brought in Oleson midseason, even as he isn’t eligible to help them in the Euroleague. He has hit 25 shots in 244 minutes total, all season, between the Euroleague and the Spanish ACB. Pascual just doesn’t trust the kid yet. And it’s doubtful he will start now, as the most important stretch of the season approaches.

There is a chance we also see Pascual rely a bit more on three-guard sets then, with Navarro shifting to the nominal small-forward spot and two of Sada-Huertas-God sharing the backcourt. Pascual has avoided going to those sets much due to the defensive deficiencies of all those guys but Sada. However, he might find himself needing to go there if Ingles can’t turn it back on and Rabaseda flops.

The news about Mickeal is very upsetting. The episode was said to be life threatening. It is possible he won’t get to play ball again. He was having a fantastic season, which could have landed him one last lucrative contract in Europe or one last shot at the NBA (the Thunder’s Sam Presti was rumored to have travelled to watch him play at one point this year). And Barcelona was cruising through the most dominant campaign in the Euroleague. Now, everything is up in the air. Barça remains a legit contender, but has gone from undisputed favorite to a step or two below CSKA Moscow and Real Madrid. Mickeal was that good a player and mattered that much. A post-Mickeal world is a place where Barça will get answers to questions they hoped wouldn’t get asked; how much progress has Tomic made really?, can Rabaseda go?, did the front-office drop the ball by not getting a more reliable third wing option in the summer? And if all or any comes back negative, their season will end in disappointment.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Despite Concerns, Florida Still Enters NCAAs as Contender

Rafael Uehara — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 17:08:24 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Some say this is the best Florida team Billy Donovan has put together since winning back-to-back titles in the middle of the past decade. Though it stumbled a bit to finish the season - losing four of its last nine games - the Gators earned a number three seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament by winning 26 of its 33 games against one of the 30 toughest schedules in the country – according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin - and the SEC outright.

At first sight, the notion may be challenged a bit. Only four of Florida’s 26 victories were against ranked opponents, its conference was down this particular season (with conference linchpin Kentucky failing to make the tournament and highly touted Missouri underachieving its way to a number-nine seed), it went 5-4 against teams that made the NCAAs and lost five games in the last couple of months of the season after losing just two in the first three.

An extended look confirms the theory, though. Florida arrives at the tournament rated number one overall on Ken Pomeroy’s metric. It ranks sixth in scoring per possession and second in scoring allowed per possession, according to teamrankings.com. Its prolificacy shooting the three-pointer (ninth in points off them, according to basketball-reference) and protecting the lane (opponents have shot just 61% at the rim, according to hoop-math.com) exemplify perfectly the concept of efficiency in modern basketball.

Patric Young is having a phenomenal season at center, posting a 24 PER. His five defensive win shares rank him fifth in the nation and his 83 defensive rating ranks him 12th. His development into an elite help-defender is the core point of Florida’s evolution from below average status in prevention one year ago to arguably the best defense in college basketball this season. He has mastered the understanding of when to nail his feet to the ground to draw a charge and when to explode off the ground to block a shot.

Though Young is the difference maker, his support is excellent as well. The rotations are sharp and the perimeter players are always alert to help-the-helper assignments and aggressive weak-side helping on the side pick-and-rolls. Only 27% of opponents’ shots have been at the rim, according to hoop-math.com.

Post defense is another key element of the Florida’s prevention effort. Listed as standing at six-foot-nine and weighing 249 pounds, Young is one tough rock to move in the block. But Erik Murphy is the key figure in this department. He is not as physically imposing as Young, so opponents choose to go at him in the post. Murphy does fine there, though, leveraging his lower-body strength and mobility to subtly force opponents away from the rim as they make their move.

Donovan has also mixed in some zone and press principles with the base defense to throw opponents off. Both were effective used selectively during Florida’s 18-2 run to start the season but the knee injury to glue guy Will Yeguete (81 defensive rating) and common late-season fatigue have taken them out of their pace some. But Yeguete is back and his return should bring Florida’s defense back to its January form. That month the Gators faced the most anemic offenses in the SEC but 40.6 points per game over seven contests is a very impressive accomplishment nonetheless.

As it has usually been the case throughout Donovan’s tenure, the Gators are once again sick on offense. Of all the favorites, Florida is the team that relies on the outside shot the most. 40% of the team’s shots have come from three-point range. UF has sustained the high rate of long-distance jumpers with 38% shooting from beyond the arc. But Sports Illustrated’s Luke Winn (the best writer in college basketball) has done a study that verified only one team seeded number-eight or higher reliant on three-point shot (defined as taking over 40% of its attempts from beyond the arc) have advanced past the Sweet 16. That team was last season’s Florida, which stopped in the Elite Eight.

But perhaps more head-scratching than the evidence that a team that takes as many three-pointers as they do is yet to get to the third weekend - and last season’s Duke proved it’s very easy that a team built like that be taken down by any team (even Lehigh) in any given night they just can’t get the long-ball to fall - is the fact that their ratio of shots at the rim to two-point jumpers is essentially one-to-one (1.06-to-1, to be specific). When forced to put the ball on the floor, Florida’s perimeter scorers are settling for the 41% shot rather than attacking for the 69% shot. 41% is a fine conversion rate on two-point jumpers but the shot at the rim is the most efficient in the game, especially considering the foul drawing element. The Gators rank 305th in free-throw attempts. Even worst, they miss 31.9% of the time they get there.

Another cause for concern as the tournament approaches is the decline in production of the guards. Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario were up to career-year paces after hot starts but their effective field-goal percentages trended down towards the end of the regular-season. Rosario picked it up a bit in the SEC tournament, going 12-for-27 (44%, including 4-10 from three-point range) but the woes continued for Boynton, who went 12-for-30 (40%, including 15 misses on 19 shots from three-point range) in the three games against Louisiana State, Alabama and Mississippi.

Concerns apart, however, Florida is still entering the NCAAs scoring in ultra-elite status territory. As basketball progresses towards a better understanding of efficient shooting zones, one team will eventually win the national championship relying on three-pointers heavily and that team might as well be this year’s Gators. Their prolific defense sets them apart of other typical high scoring juggernauts. According to research by Alligator Army’s Andy Hutchins, 18 teams have managed to finish in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency since 2003 and six of them have won the title. Florida is this season’s single candidate.

The South side of the bracket the Gators were placed is perhaps the strongest of the field, as it features Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia Commonwealth, Michigan, Nate Wolters, California Los Angeles, San Diego State and Otto Porter. At its strongest form, Florida has looked the best of all these teams, though. It’s why it is tough to see them as anything other than legit contenders for the national championship, despite the late-season stumbles and concerns that emerged.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Trey Burke Looking to Lead Michigan Back to Championship Contention

Rafael Uehara — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 17:23:44 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Trey Burke is seen by most as the front-runner to win national player of the year. The Michigan guard has improved tremendously in his sophomore season, starting the year projected as an early second-round draft choice and 33 games later is now expected to be a lottery pick. Burke has evolved into one of the most efficient volume point producers in the country, the leader of a scoring juggernaut that has brought the Wolverines back to relevancy.

Michigan has ridden its prolific offense into a 26-7 record against the 10th toughest schedule in college basketball, according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin, which led to a number-four seed in the NCAA tournament. They now hope to outscore their way into championship contention. According to kenpom.com, the Wolverines rank second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 120.6 points per 100 possessions.

Burke is the linchpin of the attack. According to basketball-reference.com, he is one of only three players in college basketball with a minimum of 1000 minutes played posting an offensive rating higher than 125 on 28% usage-rate. Usually, the most possessions you use, the least efficient you become. But Burke, in total control of Michigan’s offense, has such a versatile scoring skill-set that the most touches he gets, the most points he produces.

Michigan’s offense is at its best when they are running an emulation of the San Antonio Spurs’ attack, with Burke getting a high screen or a side screen, penetrating into the lane and either driving to the rim or hitting a spot-up shooting in the corner. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a lot more efficient spotting-up than doing stuff off the dribble. According to a study by Sports Illustrated’s Luke Winn, Hardaway Jr.’s efficiency drops by half-a-point when he jump-shoots off the bounce. And Nik Stauskas has hit 44.9% of his three-point shots on 158 attempts. As a team, the Wolverines rank in the top 40 in scoring off three-pointers.

It’s uncomfortable that they are only 273rd in free-throws per 100 possessions, according to teamrankings.com, and that they miss 29% of the few times they do get to charity stripe. Their poor foul shooting cost them a share of the Big Ten outright against Indiana just eight days ago. But two-thirds of Michigan’s shots come either at the rim or from three-point range, where they have shot 66% and 38%, according to hoop-math.com. Burke, who takes 41% of the most inefficient shot in basketball, the long two-pointer, is hitting those at a 44% clip.

Despite their scoring juggernaut, Michigan arrives at the tournament a step below odds-on favorites Indiana, Louisville, Duke and Gonzaga, even if it spent some time ranked number one in the country ahead of these other contenders as soon as six weeks ago. That’s the case because the Wolverines’ defense is very suspect. Michigan ranks 116th in scoring allowed per possession and 132nd in opponents’ shooting, per teamrankings.com.

Head-coach John Beilein has mostly rotated Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary and Jon Horford at center. Neither of those players are prolific help-defenders, capable of containing dribble penetration allowed by the perimeter players. Opponents have shot 61% at the basket, according to hoop-math.com. Burke, Hardaway, Jr., Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are all posting defensive ratings over 99.

Michigan drew in perhaps the strongest side of the bracket as the South Region features Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia Commonwealth, California Los Angeles, Florida, San Diego State and Georgetown. That’s a combined 177 wins. It is trusting Burke will carry them in a way Kemba Walker proved to be possible a couple of years ago. And considering the parity in college basketball this season and how great Burke has been, it is a possibility to be taken seriously.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

Fast & Furious Indiana Looking to Deliver on Expectations

Rafael Uehara — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 01:27:17 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Most people seem to believe the Indiana Hoosiers are the best team in college basketball as the tournament approaches, despite the fact IU has lost more games (six) than other projected favorites like Gonzaga, Louisville, Duke and Kansas. Indiana came into the season as the preseason top-ranked squad, as the 11th-ranked class of recruits joined returning pro prospects Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo and a group that made it into the sweet 16 one year ago.

With 27 wins in 33 games against the 13th toughest schedule in the country, according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin, Indiana scored a number one seed in East Region behind the Big Ten outright title and despite the loss to Wisconsin in the conference tournament’s semifinal. Fair, considering their six losses were by an average of a little over five-and-a-half points per defeat - including a couple of buzzer beaters - and all five teams that beat them will be in the tournament.

Indiana plays perhaps the most entertaining basketball in the country behind Tom Crean’s high octane offense, which makes full usage of Cody Zeller’s prolificacy sprinting down the court. According to a study by Sports Illustrated’s Luke Winn (awesomely titled GaZeller), Zeller leads the nation in scoring in transition among centers, averaging about 4.3 points per 40 minutes, almost a full point over the second-ranked player in this metric – Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk. Their capability of running off opponents’ makes is the most impressive aspect of their commitment to pushing. All this aggression puts opponents on edge and the Hoosiers lead the NCAA in free-throws per 100 possessions, according to teamrankings.com.

Indiana also relies heavily on Zeller in the half-court, where feeding him in either side of the post is most often the primary option. Zeller has a diverse post game, making up for his lack of strength with quickness to go around defenders and skill to finish at the rim with either hand and on odd angles. He is also able to catch it outside the arc and take the opponent off the dribble, a jaw-dropping skill for somebody listed at seven-feet tall. Zeller has been responsible for 21% of the team’s scoring this season and he is only one of two players (the other is Nate Wolters) posting a 127 offensive rating on 26% usage-rate in a minimum of 900 minutes, according to basketball-reference.com.

All the attention Zeller draws compresses the opposing defense, which has led to good looks on the perimeter all season long and the Hoosiers have taken advantage of them, hitting three-pointers on a 41.1% clip so far – third best mark in the nation. Christian Watford has come through on 41.1% of his 114 shots from beyond the arc, Jordan Hulls on 46.4% of his 166, Oladipo on 44.3% of his 61 and Will Sheehey on 36.6% of his 71. With terrific outside shooting complementing the easy scoring, Indiana arrives at the tournament leading the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com, averaging 123.1 points per 100 possessions against the 13th toughest set of opposing defenses.

Defensively, the Hoosiers are also quality performers but not in the same caliber of elite status. Indiana ranks 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their style of play is inviting of opponents running back at them, and though the commitment to coming back on defense is there, opponents who can break down Hulls and freshman Yogi Ferrell off the dribble get to expose Zeller’s subpar lane protection and go around them to either score at the rim or force help from Oladipo or Watford, freeing a man cutting to the rim or spotting up outside. Michigan was extremely successful doing that, and though not everyone has a Trey Burke to create that sort of havoc off dribble penetration, the weakness to quick drivers was exposed. Indiana ranks 129th in two-point defense, according to teamrankings.com.

What makes you say Indiana has a quality defense is mostly the presence of Oladipo, arguably the best isolation defender in college basketball, fueled by outstanding intensity, a non-stop motor, active hands and fluid lateral quickness. He ranks second in steals per 40 minutes on draftexpress.com’s database of top 100 draft prospects. Playing alongside below average defenders Ferrell, Hulls and Watford, Oladipo always gets assigned the opponents’ top scorer and his 86.5 defensive rating, which ranks him in the top 25 among all division I players, state perfectly the impact of his prolific individual defense within the team’s prevention effort.

Indiana’s side of the bracket is strong, featuring North Carolina State, Nevada Las Vegas, Syracuse, Butler, Marquette, Illinois, Colorado and Miami as possible notable opponents. Most curiously, it features two teams that have already beaten them this season. But its fast and furious style of play not only makes them highly entertaining to watch but also extremely tough to contain and outscore, unless you have the discipline Wisconsin has to limit the possession count and not many teams can pull that off. So the Hoosiers are still the favorites to advance to the Final Four as they look to deliver on the expectations most people had for them starting all the way back on April of last year.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.

76ers’ Awfully Frustrating Season Clouds Vision for the Future

Rafael Uehara — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 17:47:59 GMT

By Rafael Uehara

Philadelphia was within a quarter of the Eastern Conference Finals last season. But management was surprisingly smart understanding that was only the case because Derrick Rose got hurt and the Celtics love to make things a bit more difficult than they should be. When the chance to get Andrew Bynum – then deemed the second best center in the league – presented itself, the 76ers jumped on it. The losses of Andre Iguodala and Nikola Vucevic were seen as mere causalities in the pursuit of difference making talent.

The thought process was Philadelphia would tailor its offense around Bynum, playing through him in the post and surrounding him with shooters. The Sixers ran a terribly inefficient attack that prioritized long-two-pointers over three-pointers a year ago, which resulted in a bottom 10 ranking due to below average effective field-goal percentage and inexistent offensive rebounding. The plan was emulating the system Stan Van Gundy ran for Dwight Howard in Orlando, hoping Bynum could anchor the unit into elite status.

Injuries have prevented the Sixers from even putting the plan in motion, however. Bynum is yet to play a game in a 76ers’ jersey and Jason Richardson suited up for only 33 games due to some nagging injuries and now a knee problem that will sideline him for the remainder of the season. Without the linchpin to implement its new philosophy, Philadelphia has mostly fallen back into old habits throughout the year; a perimeter-based attack featuring an unhealthy ratio of jumpers-to-drives. According to Hoopdata.com, Philadelphia once more leads the league in long-two-pointers attempted per game, at 24.5 a night. And they have only hit those at a 33.3% clip. Meanwhile, they are the ninth worst team getting to the rim, averaging only 23.6 shots a game within three-feet. What makes it more disappointing is that they are 10th in percentage of makes when they get there, with Jrue Holliday, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young shooting well above 60% in the restricted area.

Not getting to the rim nearly as much as they should, still taking the most long-twos and one of the seven fewest threes and ranking second-worst in free-throw attempts (and 25th in percentage of makes) have led to the Sixers’ regression into bottom five status in scoring per possession, averaging a putrid 98.5 points per 100 possessions. And it’s not difficult to understand why. This is the exact same team as last season, except for the fact the two best players on that team – Iguodala and Lou Williams – are gone.

Holiday has taken a step forward in his development, totally making it look the $40-million dollar commitment they made in him will be a bargain. Perhaps he is the single reason why this team has over 20 wins this season. Young just doesn’t affect the bottom line in a team constructed like this. Turner has had more good/average games than bad/excruciating ones which I guess counts as development, but still looks like a fish out of water under Doug Collins’ tutorship. Collins soured on Wright. Spencer Hawes has regressed in every aspect of his game. And Nick Young has Nick Younged.

Considering how terrible the offense has been throughout, it was the defense that had maintained the Sixers decent. But as they have slipped outside top 10 territory in prevention, Philadelphia has gone downhill. They have lost 11 of their last 13, despite the fact they have played the fourth easiest set of opponents in the league over the last 25% of their schedule. In fact, their only wins in February were against the experimental Bobcats and the Warriors, which one can argue is one of the very few teams that played worst ball than the Sixers that month.

Collins turned on the players, questioning their effort amidst all the losing immediately following a loss to Orlando. It was hilarious how he went out of his way to compare the stat lines of Nikola Vucevic and Hawes, all the while ignoring he didn’t play Vucevic last year when he was his coach. Also funny how he left out the parts that 1) he had lots of input in the building of this team, 2) has total control over who should or not be on the court at all times, 3) gets to dictate how the team plays; and therefore should get a large share of the blame here.

The worst part of all is that this catastrophic and frustrating season has clouded the vision the team had for the future. Bynum has admitted the chance he might not play at all this season still exists. Collins’ general approach – on and off the court – makes you question if he is suited to coach a successful, winning team in this day and age. And Turner just hasn’t made the decision the team will have to make on him soon any easier, especially considering there has been no chance to see how he would fit alongside both Holliday and Bynum.

On top of a miserable losing season, Philadelphia will walk into the summer with huge decisions to make in a position of weakness. Even if Bynum does return and play 10, 15 games before walking into free-agency, the risk of re-signing him will still be significant. If they do it, they will be immediately capped-out next season (as Young, Hawes and Richardson will still be on the books for a combined $21.5 million, according to shamsports.com) and extending Turner as well would kill their financial flexibility for the next half-a-decade.

Choosing to tank for Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker have severe dangers too. Fan interest has been shaky for a while in Philadelphia and more losing will just bring more apathy. It also must be remembered that Harrison Barnes was seen as one of those game-changers out of high-school as well and once we got to see him in college the picture was a bit different. And you can even simply get unlucky, regardless of the amount of ping-pong balls you are able to amass. Let’s say you do choose that route, whether Collins is the right guy to see through that process must be looked at.

Most believed the Sixers absolutely needed to go after a guy like Bynum, even considering all the uncertainty regarding his health status. The logic was that even if Bynum were to struggle with his knees again, at least the franchise would get to reset, rather than renewing the cycle of mediocrity it was on pace for. Well, turns out the worst case scenario became reality and washing it off may prove a little more frustrating than anticipated. They are just in a huge hole of darkness, hoping whichever the next move they will be forced to make blindly can bring them closer to the light.

Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.