Cavaliers Poised to Take the Next Step?
By Rafael Uehara
Despite winning just 21 games last season, there was a buzz around the Cavaliers last season because of Kyrie Irving’s rookie of the year campaign (18.5 points a game, 5.4 assists a game, 21.4 PER, .566 true-shooting percentage, 28.7% usage-rate), which strengthened the fan-base’s belief in him as a transcending type of franchise building block. Though the need for hand surgery in the offseason was a bit of a scare, there is plenty of hope Cleveland is set for an ascendance this upcoming season.
There wasn’t much around Irving and the team as a whole was terrible on defense (26th in defensive efficiency, 29th in pick-and-roll defense, 30th in spot-up defense), yet behind Irving’s prolificacy, the Cavaliers won about a third of their games in the shortened season. This summer, Cleveland has managed to upgrade the talent around their franchise star significantly by signing CJ Miles in free agency and drafting Dion Waiters and Tyler Zeller, selected fourth and 17th, respectively.
The Cavaliers are hoping Waiters to be a complementary high volume scorer to Irving in the backcourt. He averaged 21.2 points per 40 minutes for Syracuse last season behind great ferocious attacking off penetration, averaging 0.89 point per possession off the pick-and-roll and 0.84 point per possession off isolations. 25.8% of his shots came at the rim, a greatly satisfying rate, where he converted 51.5%. His advanced metrics off the high screen is rumored to be the main reason why Cleveland reached to select him with the fourth pick. His ability to hit the outside (60.4% of his shots came from three-point range, where he shot 36.3%, including 47.5% effective shooting on spot-ups) is why they believe the partnership with Irving will work, even if both are high usage players.
On Zeller, they are getting somebody with the skill-set of a lottery pick. Standing at seven-feet tall, he is a great volume rebounder (averaging 13.9 boards per 40 minutes played last year, according to Draft Express), a terrific sprinter in transition (averaging 1.67 points per possession and shooting 79% on fast-breaks, according to Synergy Sports) and a quality post scorer (averaging 1.08 points per possession on post-ups and shooting 64.2% at the rim).
And after all of that, Zeller also has secondary ways to score. He drew the fourth highest free throw rate on post-ups among big men likely to be drafted and shot 80.8% from the foul line. He grabbed 14.1% of the available offensive rebounds while on the floor, according to basketball-reference. And he jump-shot 16-for-32, averaging an impressive point per possession on those jumpers. Overall, he ranked second in the conference in offensive win shares.
Defensively, Zeller is not your prototypical rim protector but he gets the job done effectively. Owning a seven-foot wingspan and an eight-foot-eight standing reach, he’s not an imposing presence but manages to get a few blocks (averaging 1.5 a game last season). Most importantly, he’s a very intuitive help defender, constantly well positioned to draw charges. With him on the floor, North Carolina allowed just 89.3 points per 100 possessions last year.
But if there is so much to like about a true seven-footer who is experienced and hustles, why wasn’t Zeller a lottery pick then? It’s simple, really. The NBA draft is all about potential. Especially at the top, what you want is a very young kid who has shown you little but enough to make you believe he can be the type of transcending player that can carry your franchise for the next decade.
Meanwhile, Zeller is a 22 year-old who isn’t all that athletic (not ideal frame at 247 pounds), isn’t much of a leaper or possesses an explosive first step (not fluid with his movements) and that, despite possessing a developed skill set, isn’t going to be a primary or secondary scoring option in the league. He’ll play hard and give you reliable consistent production but does not have much upside and will not likely be your franchise big, unless you have some emulation of Wade and James on the wings.
The 25 year-old Miles arrives to fill a need the Cavaliers had at small-forward, containing only Omri Casspi (who had a pretty bad year last season, posting an 11.2 PER and shooting 31.5% from three-point range in his first campaign in Cleveland), Luke Walton (only there because his $6 million expiring contract resulted in a first-round pick on last June’s draft in the Ramon Sessions trade) and Alonzo Gee (their third highest scorer last year, who got a three-year, $9.8 million extension).
Miles should bring the team good backdoor cutting behind his extensive experience playing on the flex offense, which shares some similar principles with the Princeton offense, a portion of Cleveland’s attack inserted by head-coach Byron Scott. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Miles averaged a point-per-possession and shot 51.9% on those cuts to the basket with the Jazz last season.
Miles should also improve the team’s three-point shooting as the Cavaliers shot 34.6% from beyond the arc and ranked 15th in the league last season. Miles, Jr. shot just 30.7% from three-point range but that’s because he was terrible generating his own shot, in isolation, on the pick-and-roll and in transition. Spotting-up, however, which figures to be his role playing alongside such a ball-dominant backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, Miles shot at league average, at 34.4% and projections are his looks will be cleaner, considering the upgrade in playmaking going from Devin Harris and Gordon Hayward to Irving and Waiters.
Miles will also bring a defensive presence on the perimeter a Cavaliers’ squad definitely needed. He allowed just 28.6% in isolation, 33.3% on spot-ups and 39.1% off screens with the Jazz last season. Alongside a big such as Anderson Varejão, he should also provide more flexibility for Scott setting up the team’s high screen coverage because of his combination of size (six-foot-six, 210 pounds) and athleticism.
Another addition of sorts the Cavaliers can also enjoy is an ascendance by Tristan Thompson. The fourth pick in the 2010 draft didn’t have all that impressive a rookie season but Cleveland holds good expectations for him. Thompson did well in transition (averaging 1.22 points per possession with 23 attempts), where he was allowed to rely on his athleticism, but didn’t get enough attempts on the pick-and-roll and on offensive rebounds so that his averages (0.8 points per possession and 1 point per possession, respectively) fueled a more impressive campaign as with him on the floor, the Cavaliers only averaged 98 points per 100 possessions.
By upgrading the talent around Irving, who is expected to be fine for season’s start, the Cavaliers have set themselves to take the next step. The eastern conference got stronger at the top, with Brooklyn flat-out buying championship contention and Boston and Indiana maintaining their status, while Miami is still there. Behind that foursome, however, things are pretty wide open. Toronto, Detroit, Washington upgrading the talent around their younger talent and teams like Atlanta and Orlando losing significant pieces such as Joe Johnson and Stan Van Gundy but remaining postseason contenders for now. Cleveland, through a very solid offseason, has also put itself in that position to perhaps be one of those up-and-coming teams that will compete for lower postseason berths.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara or reached via e-mail at rafael_uehara@live.com
Despite winning just 21 games last season, there was a buzz around the Cavaliers last season because of Kyrie Irving’s rookie of the year campaign (18.5 points a game, 5.4 assists a game, 21.4 PER, .566 true-shooting percentage, 28.7% usage-rate), which strengthened the fan-base’s belief in him as a transcending type of franchise building block. Though the need for hand surgery in the offseason was a bit of a scare, there is plenty of hope Cleveland is set for an ascendance this upcoming season.
There wasn’t much around Irving and the team as a whole was terrible on defense (26th in defensive efficiency, 29th in pick-and-roll defense, 30th in spot-up defense), yet behind Irving’s prolificacy, the Cavaliers won about a third of their games in the shortened season. This summer, Cleveland has managed to upgrade the talent around their franchise star significantly by signing CJ Miles in free agency and drafting Dion Waiters and Tyler Zeller, selected fourth and 17th, respectively.
The Cavaliers are hoping Waiters to be a complementary high volume scorer to Irving in the backcourt. He averaged 21.2 points per 40 minutes for Syracuse last season behind great ferocious attacking off penetration, averaging 0.89 point per possession off the pick-and-roll and 0.84 point per possession off isolations. 25.8% of his shots came at the rim, a greatly satisfying rate, where he converted 51.5%. His advanced metrics off the high screen is rumored to be the main reason why Cleveland reached to select him with the fourth pick. His ability to hit the outside (60.4% of his shots came from three-point range, where he shot 36.3%, including 47.5% effective shooting on spot-ups) is why they believe the partnership with Irving will work, even if both are high usage players.
On Zeller, they are getting somebody with the skill-set of a lottery pick. Standing at seven-feet tall, he is a great volume rebounder (averaging 13.9 boards per 40 minutes played last year, according to Draft Express), a terrific sprinter in transition (averaging 1.67 points per possession and shooting 79% on fast-breaks, according to Synergy Sports) and a quality post scorer (averaging 1.08 points per possession on post-ups and shooting 64.2% at the rim).
And after all of that, Zeller also has secondary ways to score. He drew the fourth highest free throw rate on post-ups among big men likely to be drafted and shot 80.8% from the foul line. He grabbed 14.1% of the available offensive rebounds while on the floor, according to basketball-reference. And he jump-shot 16-for-32, averaging an impressive point per possession on those jumpers. Overall, he ranked second in the conference in offensive win shares.
Defensively, Zeller is not your prototypical rim protector but he gets the job done effectively. Owning a seven-foot wingspan and an eight-foot-eight standing reach, he’s not an imposing presence but manages to get a few blocks (averaging 1.5 a game last season). Most importantly, he’s a very intuitive help defender, constantly well positioned to draw charges. With him on the floor, North Carolina allowed just 89.3 points per 100 possessions last year.
But if there is so much to like about a true seven-footer who is experienced and hustles, why wasn’t Zeller a lottery pick then? It’s simple, really. The NBA draft is all about potential. Especially at the top, what you want is a very young kid who has shown you little but enough to make you believe he can be the type of transcending player that can carry your franchise for the next decade.
Meanwhile, Zeller is a 22 year-old who isn’t all that athletic (not ideal frame at 247 pounds), isn’t much of a leaper or possesses an explosive first step (not fluid with his movements) and that, despite possessing a developed skill set, isn’t going to be a primary or secondary scoring option in the league. He’ll play hard and give you reliable consistent production but does not have much upside and will not likely be your franchise big, unless you have some emulation of Wade and James on the wings.
The 25 year-old Miles arrives to fill a need the Cavaliers had at small-forward, containing only Omri Casspi (who had a pretty bad year last season, posting an 11.2 PER and shooting 31.5% from three-point range in his first campaign in Cleveland), Luke Walton (only there because his $6 million expiring contract resulted in a first-round pick on last June’s draft in the Ramon Sessions trade) and Alonzo Gee (their third highest scorer last year, who got a three-year, $9.8 million extension).
Miles should bring the team good backdoor cutting behind his extensive experience playing on the flex offense, which shares some similar principles with the Princeton offense, a portion of Cleveland’s attack inserted by head-coach Byron Scott. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Miles averaged a point-per-possession and shot 51.9% on those cuts to the basket with the Jazz last season.
Miles should also improve the team’s three-point shooting as the Cavaliers shot 34.6% from beyond the arc and ranked 15th in the league last season. Miles, Jr. shot just 30.7% from three-point range but that’s because he was terrible generating his own shot, in isolation, on the pick-and-roll and in transition. Spotting-up, however, which figures to be his role playing alongside such a ball-dominant backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, Miles shot at league average, at 34.4% and projections are his looks will be cleaner, considering the upgrade in playmaking going from Devin Harris and Gordon Hayward to Irving and Waiters.
Miles will also bring a defensive presence on the perimeter a Cavaliers’ squad definitely needed. He allowed just 28.6% in isolation, 33.3% on spot-ups and 39.1% off screens with the Jazz last season. Alongside a big such as Anderson Varejão, he should also provide more flexibility for Scott setting up the team’s high screen coverage because of his combination of size (six-foot-six, 210 pounds) and athleticism.
Another addition of sorts the Cavaliers can also enjoy is an ascendance by Tristan Thompson. The fourth pick in the 2010 draft didn’t have all that impressive a rookie season but Cleveland holds good expectations for him. Thompson did well in transition (averaging 1.22 points per possession with 23 attempts), where he was allowed to rely on his athleticism, but didn’t get enough attempts on the pick-and-roll and on offensive rebounds so that his averages (0.8 points per possession and 1 point per possession, respectively) fueled a more impressive campaign as with him on the floor, the Cavaliers only averaged 98 points per 100 possessions.
By upgrading the talent around Irving, who is expected to be fine for season’s start, the Cavaliers have set themselves to take the next step. The eastern conference got stronger at the top, with Brooklyn flat-out buying championship contention and Boston and Indiana maintaining their status, while Miami is still there. Behind that foursome, however, things are pretty wide open. Toronto, Detroit, Washington upgrading the talent around their younger talent and teams like Atlanta and Orlando losing significant pieces such as Joe Johnson and Stan Van Gundy but remaining postseason contenders for now. Cleveland, through a very solid offseason, has also put itself in that position to perhaps be one of those up-and-coming teams that will compete for lower postseason berths.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara or reached via e-mail at rafael_uehara@live.com
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