2012 London Olympics Preview: Despite Notion of Parity, Team USA Remains Heavy, Heavy Favorites to Defend Gold Medal
By Rafael Uehara
Team USA arrives in London as the heavy, heavy favorites to defend the gold medal earned in Beijing four years ago. A lot has been made about the team’s lack of legit size upfront and how teams with talented frontcourts like Spain or Brazil could explore that. Also, some has been said about how the world has “caught up” and Team USA shouldn’t expect to cruise through on their way to the gold medal.
Reality is there are other talented national squads in the tournament and Team USA isn’t just going to blow everybody up by simply showing up as once upon a time. But this team is still expected to cruise through the gold medal game if it plays to the best of its capabilities if not because of the superiority in athleticism, because this is a combination of the globe’s best league’s best players. It’s that simple. If you put together a second Team USA, that second team would be projected to lose by 20 too.
That doesn’t mean Team USA is invincible. Although I don’t believe the rest of the world has “caught up” with Team USA because of the still existing meaningful difference in level of athleticism, it is an undeniable fundamental truth that basketball across the world has evolved. And we have gotten to a point that a terrible shooting night and bad effort guarding the pick-and-roll can just result in the unthinkable upset.
Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook… these are all guys known to fall in love with the jumper a little too much at times. Yes, Bryant and Westbrook are terrific mid-range jump-shooters and Durant is a terrific three-point shooter, especially with the arc a little closer under international rules, so it’s stupid to believe they are wrong for it but we are talking about a nightmare scenario here. And in that nightmare scenario, Team USA is not getting any calls and starts gunning from outside which diminishes their advantage.
The other part of the nightmare scenario Team USA is a little more prone too. Tyson Chandler is key to the team’s defensive performance and without him, Team USA has gone to LeBron James playing at center and Carmelo Anthony at power forward (because apparently head-coach Mike Krzyzewski has fallen out of love with Kevin Love and Anthony Davis isn’t there to play at all, so Chris Bosh being missed here) and those lineups have been outscored by one point in exhibition warm-ups, according to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann.
Grantland’s Sebastian Pruiti has written that all it really takes for this to stop being a major weakness is Carmelo Anthony being a little more active and playing a little harder. We have a lot of data (eight years of it) that Anthony isn’t always active, doesn’t always play hard on defense. But the few times we have seen him perform at a decent level at that end of the floor have been when he has banged against big men on the post rather than chasing around shooters on the wing. So, while this is a legit concern, Team USA isn’t terribly exposed to it.
But despite those holes that do mean they aren’t invincible, Team USA still walks into London as the heavy, heavy favorites to defend their gold medal. On a knockout elimination game, nothing is a given (go ask Greece why they didn’t qualify) and the gold medal game of four years ago proves that with everything on the line, they will have to perform to the best of their capabilities to pull through but we shouldn’t forget either that this is pretty much what guys like Bryant, Durant and James are used to doing.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara or reached via e-mail at rafael_uehara@live.com
Team USA arrives in London as the heavy, heavy favorites to defend the gold medal earned in Beijing four years ago. A lot has been made about the team’s lack of legit size upfront and how teams with talented frontcourts like Spain or Brazil could explore that. Also, some has been said about how the world has “caught up” and Team USA shouldn’t expect to cruise through on their way to the gold medal.
Reality is there are other talented national squads in the tournament and Team USA isn’t just going to blow everybody up by simply showing up as once upon a time. But this team is still expected to cruise through the gold medal game if it plays to the best of its capabilities if not because of the superiority in athleticism, because this is a combination of the globe’s best league’s best players. It’s that simple. If you put together a second Team USA, that second team would be projected to lose by 20 too.
That doesn’t mean Team USA is invincible. Although I don’t believe the rest of the world has “caught up” with Team USA because of the still existing meaningful difference in level of athleticism, it is an undeniable fundamental truth that basketball across the world has evolved. And we have gotten to a point that a terrible shooting night and bad effort guarding the pick-and-roll can just result in the unthinkable upset.
Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook… these are all guys known to fall in love with the jumper a little too much at times. Yes, Bryant and Westbrook are terrific mid-range jump-shooters and Durant is a terrific three-point shooter, especially with the arc a little closer under international rules, so it’s stupid to believe they are wrong for it but we are talking about a nightmare scenario here. And in that nightmare scenario, Team USA is not getting any calls and starts gunning from outside which diminishes their advantage.
The other part of the nightmare scenario Team USA is a little more prone too. Tyson Chandler is key to the team’s defensive performance and without him, Team USA has gone to LeBron James playing at center and Carmelo Anthony at power forward (because apparently head-coach Mike Krzyzewski has fallen out of love with Kevin Love and Anthony Davis isn’t there to play at all, so Chris Bosh being missed here) and those lineups have been outscored by one point in exhibition warm-ups, according to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann.
Grantland’s Sebastian Pruiti has written that all it really takes for this to stop being a major weakness is Carmelo Anthony being a little more active and playing a little harder. We have a lot of data (eight years of it) that Anthony isn’t always active, doesn’t always play hard on defense. But the few times we have seen him perform at a decent level at that end of the floor have been when he has banged against big men on the post rather than chasing around shooters on the wing. So, while this is a legit concern, Team USA isn’t terribly exposed to it.
But despite those holes that do mean they aren’t invincible, Team USA still walks into London as the heavy, heavy favorites to defend their gold medal. On a knockout elimination game, nothing is a given (go ask Greece why they didn’t qualify) and the gold medal game of four years ago proves that with everything on the line, they will have to perform to the best of their capabilities to pull through but we shouldn’t forget either that this is pretty much what guys like Bryant, Durant and James are used to doing.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara or reached via e-mail at rafael_uehara@live.com
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