Indiana Pacers: What is their Ceiling this Year?
By Carlos Alberto Petry Junior
Since the Jermaine O'Neal/Ron Artest era ended on a bitter note, the Pacers have been on a painful and slow rebuilding process. Throughout this period, Larry Bird, the team's President of Basketball Operations, has been very patient. He always believed that, given time to get the finances in order and start things over, the team could be back in contention eventually.
Last year, the Indiana Pacers were not the most impressive team in the league, finishing the season with the worst record among teams who made the playoffs (37-45) and losing in the first round to the Chicago Bulls in 5 games. However, it should be mentioned that after they fired Jim O'Brien and replaced him with his assistant, Frank Vogel, the team went 20-18 and started showing some promise. In fact, the team actually exceeded expectations in the playoffs, putting up a good fight against the Bulls. Although the series lasted only five games, four of them were very close (with each team winning by 6 points or less).
Coming into this season, the Pacers had plenty of cap space and there was a lot of speculation as to what they would do with it. In June, the Pacers traded the 15th pick in the draft (who turned out to be Kawhi Leonard) to the Spurs in exchange for George Hill. During the free agency period, the team showed interest in Nenê, but the Brazilian center ended up re-signing with the Nuggets. Instead of panicking and overpaying someone just for the sake of being active, Larry Bird was very patient. He seemed ready to sit on the cap space and wait until next offseason to make a big splash. Eventually, that patience paid off, and the Pacers came to terms with power forward David West on a reasonable two-year, 20-million-dollar deal.
With a couple of good pieces added to a young core, the Pacers headed into the season hoping to take a step forward and be more than a fringe playoff team. It was going to be Vogel's first full season as a coach, and no one seemed to know exactly what to expect of the team, in terms of its identity.
After 19 games, the Pacers are 5th in the East, with an impressive 13-6 record. On the defensive end, the team definitely seems to have found an identity. The Pacers are fifth in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 95.9 points per 100 possessions. The team also is tied for second in opponents' field goal percentage (41.8%).
On the other hand, with the exception of a few games, the team hasn't looked comfortable on offense at all. Even though their record looks impressive, there seems to be a lot of room for improvement at that end of the floor. The Pacers are 19st in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.8 points per 100 possessions. They're even worse in terms of shooting percentage (25th in the league, at 42.2%).
The starting lineup is made up of five capable scorers (Collison, George, Granger, West and Hibbert), so the Pacers can afford to employ a balanced attack, instead of leaning heavily on Granger the way they used to in past seasons. You'd think that approach would make Granger more dangerous and efficient, since opponents can't focus solely on him anymore. However, that has not been the case up to this point. Granger's shooting percentages are way down (38.3% from the field and 35.2% from long range). He seems to be having a hard time adjusting to the team's offense, struggling to assert himself without taking away from his teammates. But more than that, he's just been shooting poorly. His shots are coming pretty much from the same locations they did in previous seasons, but the results have been much worse. It's hard to believe he has become a worse shooter, so the most likely scenario is that he'll return to form at some point. Over the last five games, his shooting has been better (44.3% from the field and 39.3% from long range), so there is some reason for optimism.
However, Granger has not been the only starter who has struggled. Although his teammates have raved about his professionalism and leadership off the court, David West has not performed very well for the Pacers on the court so far. His scoring has been way down, and he hasn't taken (or made) as many shots from mid-range (one of the strongest aspects of his game) as he used to in New Orleans. The team is still figuring out the best way to utilize him, and he's still trying to find ways to be more effective within the framework of the offense. West underwent surgery on his left knee last year and spent the entire offseason rehabbing it, but he looks healthy, even if a little rusty. Since his struggles don't seem to have anything to do with his health, the assumption here is that he's also going to improve as he adjusts to new teammates and a new system.
It hasn't been all bad news for the Pacers, though. Roy Hibbert is having a very good season so far, with career-highs in scoring, rebounding and shooting percentage. Second-year guard/forward Paul George has also been productive, scoring in double-digits (10.9 points per game) and shooting extremely well from long range (44.4%). In fact, three-point shooting is the one area where the Pacers are doing well offensively: the team is 7th in the league, at 37.6%.
Off the bench, George Hill (9.7 points a game) and Tyler Hansbrough (9.5 points and 5.6 rebounds) are giving solid contributions, but the team doesn't have much depth beyond that. Jeff Foster, Louis Amundson and Dahntay Jones can fill in for a few minutes here and there, but shouldn't be relied upon for bigger roles, which means the team would be quite vulnerable should an injury to a starter occur.
It's still very early to draw any definite conclusions, but the way I see it, the answers to the following questions will determine how far this team can go this season:
- How much can they improve offensively?
If the Pacers want to be a contender, they cannot be a bottom-10 offense. The good news is that as we've seen above, there's plenty of reason to expect some improvement. However, as Tim Donahue -- who writes for 8 points, 9 seconds - pointed out to me, there are some fundamental problems there that might not be so easily solved. In pick-and-roll situations, Darren Collison and George Hill, the team's main ball-handlers, have trouble seeing the screener on the roll or pop when the defense hedges hard. In addition, there seems to be a lot of standing around and no clear first option (though you'd think Granger will be able to fill that void as he gets used to the new offense). I'd guess the team will figure things out and become at least an average offensive team.
- Can the team sustain its defensive efficiency?
Even with their offensive struggles, the Pacers’ defense has been good enough to carry the Pacers to a very good record early. There's no reason to expect that to change, even though defensive rebounding could be an issue going forward. I believe this team has the pieces to remain among the best defenses in the league, even if they slip a little.
- Will the team be able to survive the season without injuries to their main players?
This is the biggest question, in my opinion. The team's depth looks fragile as it is, so an injury to any starter could mean a big drop-off in terms of performance. Yes, Hill and Hansbrough are very capable of stepping into a starter role, but what happens to the bench if they do? This is where I think this team is behind the other top teams in the East, and the main reason why I don't expect them to contend for the title -- yet, at least. After some key additions next offseason (which they should be able to make, since cap space will not be a problem), the Pacers could position themselves as a contender for years to come.
And then Larry Bird's patience will have paid off.
Editor's Note: Carlos Alberto Petry Junior is a featured blogger for 'the Basketball Post', providing insight on the NBA. More of his stuff can be found here or on Siga NBA, his personal blog in Portuguese, and he can be followed on twitter @siganba.
Since the Jermaine O'Neal/Ron Artest era ended on a bitter note, the Pacers have been on a painful and slow rebuilding process. Throughout this period, Larry Bird, the team's President of Basketball Operations, has been very patient. He always believed that, given time to get the finances in order and start things over, the team could be back in contention eventually.
Last year, the Indiana Pacers were not the most impressive team in the league, finishing the season with the worst record among teams who made the playoffs (37-45) and losing in the first round to the Chicago Bulls in 5 games. However, it should be mentioned that after they fired Jim O'Brien and replaced him with his assistant, Frank Vogel, the team went 20-18 and started showing some promise. In fact, the team actually exceeded expectations in the playoffs, putting up a good fight against the Bulls. Although the series lasted only five games, four of them were very close (with each team winning by 6 points or less).
Coming into this season, the Pacers had plenty of cap space and there was a lot of speculation as to what they would do with it. In June, the Pacers traded the 15th pick in the draft (who turned out to be Kawhi Leonard) to the Spurs in exchange for George Hill. During the free agency period, the team showed interest in Nenê, but the Brazilian center ended up re-signing with the Nuggets. Instead of panicking and overpaying someone just for the sake of being active, Larry Bird was very patient. He seemed ready to sit on the cap space and wait until next offseason to make a big splash. Eventually, that patience paid off, and the Pacers came to terms with power forward David West on a reasonable two-year, 20-million-dollar deal.
With a couple of good pieces added to a young core, the Pacers headed into the season hoping to take a step forward and be more than a fringe playoff team. It was going to be Vogel's first full season as a coach, and no one seemed to know exactly what to expect of the team, in terms of its identity.
After 19 games, the Pacers are 5th in the East, with an impressive 13-6 record. On the defensive end, the team definitely seems to have found an identity. The Pacers are fifth in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 95.9 points per 100 possessions. The team also is tied for second in opponents' field goal percentage (41.8%).
On the other hand, with the exception of a few games, the team hasn't looked comfortable on offense at all. Even though their record looks impressive, there seems to be a lot of room for improvement at that end of the floor. The Pacers are 19st in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.8 points per 100 possessions. They're even worse in terms of shooting percentage (25th in the league, at 42.2%).
The starting lineup is made up of five capable scorers (Collison, George, Granger, West and Hibbert), so the Pacers can afford to employ a balanced attack, instead of leaning heavily on Granger the way they used to in past seasons. You'd think that approach would make Granger more dangerous and efficient, since opponents can't focus solely on him anymore. However, that has not been the case up to this point. Granger's shooting percentages are way down (38.3% from the field and 35.2% from long range). He seems to be having a hard time adjusting to the team's offense, struggling to assert himself without taking away from his teammates. But more than that, he's just been shooting poorly. His shots are coming pretty much from the same locations they did in previous seasons, but the results have been much worse. It's hard to believe he has become a worse shooter, so the most likely scenario is that he'll return to form at some point. Over the last five games, his shooting has been better (44.3% from the field and 39.3% from long range), so there is some reason for optimism.
However, Granger has not been the only starter who has struggled. Although his teammates have raved about his professionalism and leadership off the court, David West has not performed very well for the Pacers on the court so far. His scoring has been way down, and he hasn't taken (or made) as many shots from mid-range (one of the strongest aspects of his game) as he used to in New Orleans. The team is still figuring out the best way to utilize him, and he's still trying to find ways to be more effective within the framework of the offense. West underwent surgery on his left knee last year and spent the entire offseason rehabbing it, but he looks healthy, even if a little rusty. Since his struggles don't seem to have anything to do with his health, the assumption here is that he's also going to improve as he adjusts to new teammates and a new system.
It hasn't been all bad news for the Pacers, though. Roy Hibbert is having a very good season so far, with career-highs in scoring, rebounding and shooting percentage. Second-year guard/forward Paul George has also been productive, scoring in double-digits (10.9 points per game) and shooting extremely well from long range (44.4%). In fact, three-point shooting is the one area where the Pacers are doing well offensively: the team is 7th in the league, at 37.6%.
Off the bench, George Hill (9.7 points a game) and Tyler Hansbrough (9.5 points and 5.6 rebounds) are giving solid contributions, but the team doesn't have much depth beyond that. Jeff Foster, Louis Amundson and Dahntay Jones can fill in for a few minutes here and there, but shouldn't be relied upon for bigger roles, which means the team would be quite vulnerable should an injury to a starter occur.
It's still very early to draw any definite conclusions, but the way I see it, the answers to the following questions will determine how far this team can go this season:
- How much can they improve offensively?
If the Pacers want to be a contender, they cannot be a bottom-10 offense. The good news is that as we've seen above, there's plenty of reason to expect some improvement. However, as Tim Donahue -- who writes for 8 points, 9 seconds - pointed out to me, there are some fundamental problems there that might not be so easily solved. In pick-and-roll situations, Darren Collison and George Hill, the team's main ball-handlers, have trouble seeing the screener on the roll or pop when the defense hedges hard. In addition, there seems to be a lot of standing around and no clear first option (though you'd think Granger will be able to fill that void as he gets used to the new offense). I'd guess the team will figure things out and become at least an average offensive team.
- Can the team sustain its defensive efficiency?
Even with their offensive struggles, the Pacers’ defense has been good enough to carry the Pacers to a very good record early. There's no reason to expect that to change, even though defensive rebounding could be an issue going forward. I believe this team has the pieces to remain among the best defenses in the league, even if they slip a little.
- Will the team be able to survive the season without injuries to their main players?
This is the biggest question, in my opinion. The team's depth looks fragile as it is, so an injury to any starter could mean a big drop-off in terms of performance. Yes, Hill and Hansbrough are very capable of stepping into a starter role, but what happens to the bench if they do? This is where I think this team is behind the other top teams in the East, and the main reason why I don't expect them to contend for the title -- yet, at least. After some key additions next offseason (which they should be able to make, since cap space will not be a problem), the Pacers could position themselves as a contender for years to come.
And then Larry Bird's patience will have paid off.
Editor's Note: Carlos Alberto Petry Junior is a featured blogger for 'the Basketball Post', providing insight on the NBA. More of his stuff can be found here or on Siga NBA, his personal blog in Portuguese, and he can be followed on twitter @siganba.
Posted by Rafael Uehara at Tuesday, January 31, 2012 5:31:35 PM 
Categories: NBA
Tags: Carlos Alberto Petry Junior
Categories: NBA
Tags: Carlos Alberto Petry Junior
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